The first thing I saw when I opened my eyes this morning was a sharp drop in BTC– it broke through 90,000 and surged to a high of 92,000 . This is the first truly effective breakout since the panic selling on November 20th.
A more crucial detail is that Coinbase's negative premium over Binance has finally turned positive after 29 consecutive days. It's worth noting that during the major bull run from April to October, Coinbase's premium was consistently positive, a typical indication of market dominance by European and American funds. If this premium can truly be restored as a trend, then BTC's future performance might genuinely become more favorable.
With macroeconomic factors in full swing and US stocks bullish, funds are starting to turn their attention back to the cryptocurrency market.
The expectation of an interest rate cut has been fueled by the past two days, leading to a four-day winning streak in US stocks. Nvidia rebounded and Broadcom hit a new all-time high – indicating a complete recovery in macro sentiment.
Regarding ETFs, BTC and Ethereum recorded net inflows for the second consecutive day. Although the amount was small, almost like a test, it is at least a turning point signal from "outflow" to "inflow" . With US stock markets closed today, this inflow could even last for two days.
On the financial front, the two leading companies will definitely continue to buy.
As for Tom Lee… this guy makes three predictions a day, each with a completely different direction. Now he's lowered his year-end forecast to "maybe 100,000+", while continuing to insist that it will reach 150,000 to 200,000 in January. At the end of September, he was saying it would reach 200,000 to 250,000 by the end of the year, and 10,000 to 12,000 for Ethereum. So just take it with a grain of salt, listen to it if you want, but don't believe it too much.
The strong rally during the Asian session may be related to Trump's "midnight call to the Japanese Prime Minister".
Today's rally occurred during the Asian session, and the biggest news was that Trump made his first phone call to Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi.
It was revealed that the main point was to urge Japan not to provoke trouble over the Taiwan issue. The 25-minute call likely boiled down to one core sentence: "Don't cause trouble, and I will give you the corresponding guarantees."
Therefore, the short-term geopolitical tensions have cooled down.
On the Russia-Ukraine side, the US presented Russia with the latest version of the peace agreement, but Peskov said it was too early, clearly indicating that Moscow wanted to continue bargaining. With the situation in Ukraine largely settled, Russia still has room to maneuver.
Two major negative factors today: USDT's rating was downgraded + UPbit suffered a $380 million theft.
(1) USDT was downgraded to the lowest rating by S&P (but this is nothing new)
S&P downgraded USDT's rating to "weak," meaning it carries high risk and has an increased likelihood of de-pegging. The reasons are familiar:
- The reserves contain a relatively high proportion of gold, Bitcoin, and corporate bonds.
- Insufficient information transparency
But to be honest— USDT has been operating on a "wild" path since 2016 and has never had a single problem. This is something that can be "looked at and forgotten".
(2) Upbit was robbed of $380 million (but the impact was limited)
The stolen tokens were mainly Solana ecosystem coins: 2z, ACS, BONK, JTO, JUP, IO, etc. This isn't fatal for Upbit—they had 342,000 ETH stolen in 2019 (worth over 1 billion at current prices), and they covered it themselves.
More importantly, South Korean portal giant Naver has agreed to acquire Upbit's parent company, Dunamu, for a valuation of $10.3 billion. With the money almost in hand, this theft has had a very limited impact on overall confidence. The overall altcoin market didn't follow suit: fear, waiting for signals, and reluctance to make any rash moves.
BTC rallied today, but altcoins remained cautious. This is partly due to fear of further gains, and partly because they're hesitant to act rashly—altcoins will only enter the market after a clear reversal pattern is observed.
The main reasons for today's strong performance were:
🔥Meme section
Fartcoin, SPX, Brett, and others generally rebounded by around 20%.
🔥Launch pad
Both MET and Virtual rose by 10% or more.
🔥The three that Blackie bought back
ENA, Pendle, and ETHFI have all shown strong upward trends.
🔥Mining coins continue to surge
KAS has recently increased by 50%, it's still going strong.
However, the vast majority of older cryptocurrencies on CEXs are still hovering near their all-time lows .
As I said before: if there's another altcoin season, it will definitely be the last. Seize the opportunity while you can, and don't cling to the past if you can't—the future differentiation will become increasingly exaggerated, and the ultimate fate of the vast majority of old coins is only one: to go to zero.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Join Sister Miao and let's ride this bull market together!
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