Bitcoin plummeted to $86,310 early on the morning of the 1st, breaking below the $86,000 level. Investor sentiment quickly shifted to "risk-off" after weeks of consolidation, compounded by the hacking of Yearn Finance's core liquidity pool, yETH.
The decline that day was not simply a directional selloff in response to macroeconomic news, but rather a market shock stemming from the unwinding of leveraged positions and the liquidation of liquidation structures. In the US interest rate futures market, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December had risen to 85-87%, but this expectation had already been priced in during the rally in September and October. Therefore, the prevailing analysis is that policy expectations alone will be insufficient to revive buying momentum.
The rapid decline further bewildered the market. BTC, which was trading at $91,300 around 7:00 PM on November 30th, fell to around $87,000 in just three to four hours, and the overall market capitalization also plummeted. Based on major indices, the market capitalization is estimated to have fallen by approximately 4.5% over a four-hour period. This is a macroeconomic estimate, calculated based on the market cap decline, representing a capital loss of approximately $144 billion.
At the same time, major assets also experienced simultaneous corrections. ETH fell to $2,827 (-5.36%), XRP to $2.05 (-6.39%), and SOL to $126 (-6.41%).
What amplified the market turmoil was the simultaneous occurrence of security risks in CEX and DeFi. After stealing yETH pool tokens, the attacker transferred 1,000 ETH (estimated to be worth millions of dollars) of the stolen assets to Tornado Cash. This incident drew particular attention as a rare "overlapping risk market," where the risks of centralized exchanges (CEXs) and the vulnerabilities of DeFi simultaneously impacted investor sentiment.
The industry points out that Yearn Finance is a yield aggregator, directly or indirectly connected to major liquidity pools like Aave, Curve, and Compound. Because it structurally shares a wide range of deposit assets and liquidity, the hacking exposure is interpreted as triggering withdrawals and unstaking before price movements, spreading fears of fund recovery.
BTC's future breakout point is also being readjusted based on technical price defense levels. The first major price support level is $87,000, followed by $80,400. If further corrections occur, the area around $75,000 is considered a point of market shock mitigation and liquidity reabsorption.
By 2025, the virtual asset market will no longer be determined solely by central bank interest rate forecasts or policy statements. Investors now focus less on the strength of policy signals and more on the pace of actual capital inflows, the timing of liquidity re-inflow after leverage liquidation, and the degree to which buying capital directly impacts price formation. The market's leadership has already shifted from "verbal expectations" to "the timing of the alignment of funds and prices."
This recent plunge doesn't mean Bitcoin's long-term upward trend has been damaged. However, what's needed for the market to rebound is not pre-announced liquidity, but actual liquidity arriving now. Ultimately, the catalyst for a rebound isn't the numerical probability of an interest rate cut, but whether buying capital is ready to push the price up in real time.
