Bitcoin’s sudden dip on the first day of December has entrenched a fearful market mood, prompting analysts to adopt a cautious stance as the year draws to a close.
The concern has dominated the past month, reflecting Bitcoin’s 7% slide in December and its roughly 31% correction from the October 6 all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko data.
The crypto market is in a fragile state, experts told Decrypt. Negative news weighs on markets, while positive developments fail to improve market sentiment or price.
Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound with elevated volatility, consolidating between $83,000 and $95,000, Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market-making firm Caladan, told Decrypt.
Still, experts maintain that Bitcoin is in a bull-market correction rather than having already tipped into bear-market territory.
Bitcoin’s crash on the first day of December appears to have been driven by a lack of macro data, uncertainty amplified by MicroStrategy's woes, and speculation about Tether's insolvency, Decrypt previously reported.
Gold’s rise amid the stock and crypto tumble, meanwhile, hints at the pervasive risk-off shift.
“For Bitcoin to regain a clear upward trajectory, the macro environment would need to improve more than people currently expect,” Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, told Decrypt, echoing Lim’s constrained outlook.
It is unlikely Bitcoin will launch into a strong one-way uptrend before 2025 ends, Sun noted, suggesting a more realistic scenario would involve “working on forming a bottom.”
“Liquidity conditions and sentiment are still pretty weak,” the analyst explained, adding that even a December rate cut is secondary to the Fed’s 2026 outlook.
Though the Federal Reserve ended its quantitative tightening program on Monday, removing a significant structural headwind, Lim noted that the positive effects will take time to materialize in market flows.
He drew a parallel to the 2019 setup, in which risk assets began a significant rally roughly six to 12 months after the Fed concluded its last QT cycle.
Looking further ahead, Lim forecasts Bitcoin trading in a range of $110,000 to $135,000 in the mid to long-term.
That outlook hinges on key catalysts aligning for risk assets, primarily the Fed’s guidance. Sustained tailwinds would require two to three more cuts through mid-2026, balance sheet stability from the end of QT, and continued institutional adoption.
Analysts differentiate the current pullback from a true bear cycle.
“A true bear market usually involves long-term money leaving the space, narratives breaking down, and institutions pulling back in a big way,” Sun clarified, suggesting the current market is weighed down by lower risk appetite and tight liquidity.
Unlike the last cycle peak, “we’re not seeing widespread euphoria or speculative excess,” Sun noted.
“As long as expectations for a looser Fed cycle in 2026 don’t get completely derailed... this phase is more likely a bottom-forming consolidation—not a new long-term bear market.”
Still, Lim warned that a break below $75,000 would invalidate it, opening the door to a deeper downturn.
