On December 1, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November came in at 48.2, remaining in contraction for the ninth consecutive month. Hopes for a manufacturing rebound failed to materialize, reinforcing expectations of stable rates while simultaneously reigniting recession concerns. Economic uncertainty is rising once again. Meanwhile, Trump is accelerating internal positioning, and speculation around a “shadow Fed chair” has begun to surface. Markets fear that forward guidance may slip into a dual-signal regime over the next six months, potentially causing heightened volatility in the dollar and rate expectations.
Amid overlapping macro noise and policy uncertainty, crypto volatility picked up again overnight. BTC rebounded from its lows to around $87,000, but remains in a weak recovery structure. The key near-term focus is whether price can break above the dense liquidation zone at $88,000; failure to do so may trigger another retest of $85,000 support. Liquidity maps show major clusters at short liquidations around $88,000 and long liquidations near $85,500 and $83,800, suggesting continued elevated short-term volatility.
If policy uncertainty continues to rise, BTC is likely to stay range-bound, with liquidation flows dictating direction. $88,000 remains the key upside breakout level, while $85,000 and $83,800 act as two defensive supports.
Bitunix Analyst View:
U.S. monetary policy is entering an unprecedented transition phase. The interplay between a “shadow chair,” unclear inflation trajectory, and rapidly shifting expectations will drive repeated repricing in the weeks ahead. BTC’s near-term direction will depend heavily on liquidation density and macro sentiment. Investors should focus on capital flows, volatility trends, and alignment of policy signals to capture the next structural breakout.
