Today is December 2, 2025. The price of Bitcoin is fluctuating between $85,000 and $92,000, the Fear & Greed Index is consistently between 50 and 70, and the Bitcoin dominance rate is stable at 59% to 65%. However, the Altcoin index has plummeted by 25% to 40% during the same period, and hundreds of projects that were once worth billions of dollars have gone to zero or been delisted from exchanges.
BeInCrypto's latest report on December 1st, "The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead," makes the matter clear:
"The four-year cycle is completely dead. Without Bitcoin's hype, the Altcoin season simply cannot begin."
This statement is like a knife, completely severing the faith of all the halfway believers over the past fifteen years.
I. The complete chain of evidence for the four-year cycle of death
The reason why the past four rounds of halving were so accurate was never because of the phrase "halving output," but because the timing of the halving coincided perfectly with the Federal Reserve's epic quantitative easing:
• Halved in November 2012 → QE3 in September 2012
• Halved in July 2016 → Negative global interest rates from 2014 to 2016
• Halving in May 2020 → Unlimited QE in March 2020 + $4.6 trillion in pandemic relief
After the halving in April 2024, the Federal Reserve did the opposite, taking a full three years to cut its balance sheet from $8.96 trillion to $6.57 trillion, forcibly withdrawing $2.39 trillion in liquidity and stifling the collective expectation of "frenzy after the halving".
The result is:
• In October 2025, it only reached a high of $126,199 before falling back by 30%.
Altcoin saw near-zero gains throughout the year.
The Greed Index has never exceeded 80.
Bitcoin's dominance has actually increased, reaching a peak of nearly 68%.
Peter Brandt stated publicly in November: "The decline in the bull market cycle index is an ironclad rule. If this round falls to $50,000, the next peak will be $200,000 to $250,000."
The subtext of this statement is: this round has not even completed the "peak" stage; the cycle has been forcibly cut in half.
II. December 1, 2025: The True Zero Point of the New Cycle
On December 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced almost silently that quantitative tightening (QT) had officially ended.
This day marks the true beginning of this cycle, not the halving in April 2024.
Key facts listed:
• The balance sheet has stopped net selling US Treasuries and shifted to a passive "hold to maturity" model.
• Excess reserves in the banking system have stopped declining.
• Reverse repurchase balance is down to only $500 billion, nearing technical exhaustion.
M2 money supply has seen positive year-on-year growth for several consecutive months, reaching +8% in November, with a total size of US$22.3 trillion.
• 88% probability of a 25bp rate cut by the FOMC on December 9-10
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.2% from its October high of 4.8%.
That very evening, Powell made three remarks at a low-key event commemorating George Schultz:
• "We're driving in the fog" → Data is mixed, so we dare not immediately release a large amount of liquidity.
• Labor market in balance but with limited opportunities → Further easing is on the horizon
• Restrictive policies have significantly alleviated the supply-demand imbalance → Current interest rate restrictions have decreased substantially.
In plain language: QT is dead, interest rate cuts are a done deal, and the door to QE (quantitative easing) is half-open.
This is almost a complete remake of QT, which ended prematurely in August 2019. What happened in the next 12 months?
Bitcoin rose from $10,000 to $64,000, the Altcoin index increased 20 times, and DeFi TVL increased 50 times.
Now, all leading indicators are repeating the path of 2019.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it’s rhyming.
III. The Great Escape of Altcoin: Half Gone by 2025, Another Half to Die in 2026
Data is more brutal than language:
· 24% of the top 200 cryptocurrencies have hit a one-year low
By 2025, over 500 projects with a market capitalization exceeding $100 million had either gone completely to zero or been delisted from major exchanges.
Countless animal coins, AI coins, and meme coins that exploded in popularity in 2023-2024 have plummeted by 95%-99%.
The cause of death can be stated in a single sentence:
In a liquidity vacuum, worthless tokens are ultimately just air.
IV. ETF Wave: A Screener with a High Probability of Approval, Rather Than One Already Launched in Batches
The most ironic scene of 2025 has appeared:
On one hand, Altcoin are dying out en masse, while on the other hand, there is a surge in applications for Altcoin ETFs—but not as "mass-marketed" as early optimistic predictions suggested.
As of December 2nd, the SEC has approved a small number of altcoin spot ETFs, and approximately 5–7 altcoin ETFs have been launched (including a few basket funds such as Grayscale Digital Large Cap, which includes SOL/XRP). Solana and XRP are dominant, with DOGE being the first meme coin to break out.
These approvals have injected approximately $2 billion in liquidity, but the overall process is still in the "pilot phase" rather than a full rollout. The SEC is currently reviewing more than 90 applications, many of which face a final deadline between October and December, but the shutdown has resulted in a delay until Q1 2026.
This is not salvation, it's a meat grinder.
Institutional funds brought in by ETFs will only flow into three types of assets:
Public blockchains with a compliance moat (SOL, XRP, AVAX, SUI)
RWA projects with real cash flow
• The leading meme with a political/cultural meme super narrative (DOGE)
The remaining 99% of projects will die even faster under the spotlight of ETF review, as institutional due diligence will crush them.
The XRP ETF saw $250 million in trading volume on its first day, and the SOL ecosystem's TVL rose 20% in a week after its launch—these are living examples.
V. Two Fates for Altcoin in 2026
The real knock-off season is no longer about "everything flying together," but about "a very small number of winners taking all."
Once Bitcoin's dominance falls below 50% (currently only 9 percentage points away), funds will quickly rotate from Bitcoin to the aforementioned phoenix-like assets, partially replicating the 10-30x rally seen in 2020-2021.
The remaining projects will wither completely before the flood arrives.
VI. New Trading Framework: Look at Only Four Charts
The halving countdown website can be permanently shut down.
In 2026 and beyond, the fate of all crypto assets will depend on just four charts:
• Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Weekly Report (Whether it will resume expansion)
M2 year-on-year growth rate (currently +8%, target 10%+)
• Bitcoin dominance rate (59% warning, 50% trigger)
• 10-year US Treasury real yield (a drop below 0 would indicate a major downturn)
As long as all four charts show a positive trend, any pullback is a buying opportunity; if any one chart shows a negative trend, it's a sell signal.
VII. Conclusion: A New Order Has Arrived
The four-year cycle is not wrong, it's just an old saying.
The true pricing balance of Bitcoin has never been Satoshi Nakamoto's code, but rather the Federal Reserve's $6.57 trillion balance sheet.
The fate of Altcoin no longer depends on "how many months after the halving," but rather on whether they can survive under the spotlight of ETF reviews and institutional due diligence. On December 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve quietly pressed the start button for a new supercycle by ending QT.
This was ultimately not a bull market where everyone was "celebrating".
It's not a "winner-takes-all" bull market.
The game has only just begun, but the rules have already been completely changed.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Join Sister Miao and let's ride this bull market together!
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