Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio was recently invited to speak and participate in a dialogue at the Oxford Union in the UK, focusing on the themes of global order changes, debt cycles, the rise and fall of powers, and the impact of technology. When discussing US-China relations, the moderator steered the discussion to one of the most pressing concerns: Taiwan. In his response, Dalio avoided emotional commentary, instead returning to his long-standing research into historical cycles and Chinese political culture, explaining his view of the Taiwan issue's place in China's mind, and assessing whether Taiwan could become a flashpoint for a potential military conflict between the US and China.
Understanding Taiwan's Connections with China: Understanding China Before Understanding Taiwan
Dalio recounted his experience of first visiting China in the mid-1980s, from initial curiosity to gradually understanding China's perspective on the world through exchanges with local leaders and historians. He emphasized that to understand how China views Taiwan today, one must first understand its political culture and historical background.
The nation is a large family from top to bottom, and the Taiwan issue has long been a part of China's mind.
He relayed the views of Chinese leaders and scholars, pointing out that the traditional concept of "nation" contains the meanings of both "country" and "family," representing that the nation is regarded as a large family, and that order and harmony are maintained from top to bottom.
In contrast, the West places greater emphasis on the individual and bottom-up power, leading to often very different ways of thinking about sovereignty, order, and power. After discussing China's history and governance perspectives, Dalio turned his attention to Taiwan. He pointed out that Taiwan has existed in China's overall narrative for a very long time, and is not a political issue that has only recently emerged, but is deeply rooted in its national history and understanding.
The One China principle has been clear and has remained unchanged since the end of World War II.
When asked whether the US and China would go to war over Taiwan, Dalio stated directly that the Chinese government undoubtedly believes that "Taiwan is part of China." He said that since the end of World War II, China has repeatedly emphasized the same position, including that Taiwan belongs to China and that it adheres to the "One China" policy. These are considered self-evident and undeniable within China.
The probability of short-term conflict is low; Taiwan is an issue that requires long-term evolution.
Dalio further stated that he views Taiwan as an issue that "evolves over time," rather than a potential flashpoint for a full-blown conflict.
He emphasized that, given the current situation, he does not believe Taiwan will become the real focal point of a military conflict between the US and China. This reflects Dalio's observations based on historical cycles and the current situation, rather than emotional predictions.
The battlefield is shifting to fintech; Taiwan is in a highly sensitive but not immediately tipped-off position.
Dalio points out that the US-China relationship has entered a new type of competition with multiple parallel tracks, including non-traditional battlefields such as trade, technology and finance, and Taiwan is situated in this larger geopolitical competition framework.
He believes that the two major powers, the US and China, are moving towards greater self-sufficiency in order to reduce dependence and avoid being constrained. In this environment, Taiwan remains a highly watched area, but he does not see it as a flashpoint for inevitable conflict in the short term, but rather as a long-term issue intertwined with historical narratives and modern competition.
This article, "Bridgewater's Ray Dalio: Taiwan is a long-term structural issue and will not become a trigger for US-China conflict in the short term," first appeared on ABMedia .
