According to ChainCatcher, while quantum computers pose a long-term threat to encryption, the actual risks are generally exaggerated. The report indicates that the likelihood of a "cryptography-dependent quantum computer" capable of breaking modern encryption systems emerging before 2030 is extremely low.
a16z recommends immediately deploying hybrid encryption schemes to counter "collect now, decrypt later" (HNDL) attacks, but blockchains need not rush to adopt post-quantum signature technology because digital signatures are unaffected by HNDL attacks.
Bitcoin faces unique challenges due to its slow governance mechanism and a large number of potentially abandoned quantum-vulnerable coins, necessitating early planning of a migration path. Privacy blockchains, on the other hand, have an even more urgent need for post-quantum protection due to their encrypted transaction data.
The report emphasizes that addressing security and vulnerabilities is a more pressing threat than long-term quantum computing risks, and offers seven specific recommendations to help the industry address the quantum challenges.
