Multiple new "insider" accounts have simultaneously placed bets that Trump will not declassify UFO documents this year.

According to Mars Finance, on December 8th, PolyBeats reported that the probability of the prediction market "Will Trump declassify UFO documents in 2025?" surged from 5% to 71% within half an hour yesterday, fueling expectations that UFOs would soon be revealed. This market is based on Trump's political promise during his 2024 campaign to "declassify everything," and the mandatory declassification requirements for the Department of Defense (DoD) in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Trading data shows that the surge in probability began with trader ster. He started buying "Yes" shares when the market was established, and yesterday's probability surge was due to his market-wide buy orders during periods of low liquidity, pushing up the probability. Looking back at his past trades, his operations appear more like a "buy low, pump high, sell high" trading pattern than insider trading. On the opposing side, the actions of six accounts in the 12 hours following the probability surge are more noteworthy. They bought over 20,000 "No" shares at an average price of less than $0.20, betting that Trump would not declassify the UFO documents in 2025. These accounts shared a common characteristic: this was their only position on Polymarket. The simultaneous operation of six accounts with such consistent timing, price, and position size made another possibility for the market movement: these six accounts used AARO's website updates as a "smokescreen," deliberately or passively pushing up the probability of "Yes," causing the price of "No" to plummet, thus allowing them to build positions at low cost. These traders knew that AARO's routine website updates were insufficient to meet the market's strict judgment standards; therefore, they used this information asymmetry to engage in reverse arbitrage, betting that the market would ultimately settle with "No."