Total Asset Update | Macro Liquidity Data

II. Scoring according to the rules

1. TGA remains extremely high and continues to rise → Pumping → -1
   1. TGA is not only at a high level, but it is also continuing to increase (absorbing water), making it the biggest source of contraction at present.
   2. 👉Score: −1
2. Reserve requirements trending downward → tightening → -1
   1. The trend remains downward, and the water level continues to drop.
   2. 👉Score: −1
3. RRP drops by more than $100 in one week → liquidity injection → +1
   1. The balance has been almost completely cleared, with no room for further release.
   2. 👉Score: 0
4. SOFR − IORB > 0.05% → Tight Funding → −1
   1. 3.94% - 3.90% = 0.04%. The interest rate spread is still within the normal range.
   2. 👉Score: 0
5. DXY strongly defends the 100 mark → Tightening environment → -1
   1. The DXY has stabilized above 100.55, establishing a strong dollar environment.
   2. 👉Score: −1
6. Gold rose +1% and TGA declined → monetary easing → +1
   1. The condition is not met.
   2. 👉Score: 0
7. A declining/sluggish HYG/LQD ratio indicates credit tightening, which could lead to a decrease of 1.
   1. The ratio is approximately 0.721, indicating that credit risk appetite remains weak.
   2. 👉Score: −1

IV. Comprehensive Interpretation

• The core liquidity pump is operating at full capacity : the Treasury (TGA) holds a massive amount of cash (>935 billion), which has been genuinely withdrawn from the market. Unless the TGA begins large-scale spending (releasing liquidity), the market will hardly feel any significant easing of liquidity.
• The buffer has disappeared : RRP has gone to zero, which means that the market has lost its "backup reservoir" to deal with sudden liquidity shocks.
• Water levels are dropping : the banking system's reserves are slowly being depleted.