According to TechFlow TechFlow, on December 12th, Matrixport released a weekly report stating, "The latest FOMC rate cut was as expected, but the forward guidance did not provide a clear direction for future policy, and market concerns about the pace of the policy shift have actually intensified. However, judging from the performance of interest rates and asset prices, these uncertainties are still only partially reflected in current prices. Powell's somewhat hesitant statements, coupled with early signs of a weakening labor market, also indicate that the current macroeconomic environment is significantly different from that at the beginning of the year."
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin broke below a key long-term trend level for the first time in this bull market, a pattern quite similar to the market rhythm before midterm elections in previous years.
Despite recent frequent talk of the Federal Reserve restarting its balance sheet expansion, overall cryptocurrency liquidity remains tight, and retail trading has not shown a significant recovery. Meanwhile, the impact of political factors on market sentiment and trading behavior may not be fully priced in. With multiple factors intertwined, the market is shifting from a single-trend market to a more complex pattern. In this phase, position management and risk control become significantly more important. Based on our assessment in our report dated October 31, 2025, even without defining the current market as a bear market, this consolidation is likely to continue.
