According to a recent research report by Gate Odaily, titled "Application and Backtesting of Momentum Indicators in the Crypto Market," the BTC market will enter a structural phase characterized by high volatility and weak trends from the end of 2024 to 2025, with price movements exhibiting a mixed pattern of "range-bound oscillation + volatility expansion."
Against this backdrop, traditional trend-following momentum strategies frequently fail in these common phases, while momentum structures centered on volatility expansion perform more adaptably. Therefore, Bollinger Band breakout momentum is more effective at capturing market movements than MACD and RSI. As the overall market gradually transitions from a "trend-driven" to a "volatility-dominated" trading paradigm, the environmental fit of momentum strategies becomes a core factor determining performance.
Gate Research points out that in a market environment characterized by unstable trends and frequent fluctuations, a single momentum indicator is unlikely to be effective in the long run. A more robust composite momentum framework can be constructed by introducing ADX as a trend filter, combining it with Bollinger Bands to capture volatility expansion, and supplementing it with RSI to identify extreme sentiment ranges.
