Analysis: Bitcoin options with a notional value of approximately $23.8 billion will expire on December 26, potentially leading to a "concentrated liquidation and repricing of risk exposure" at the end of the year.

According to ME News on December 14th (UTC+8), on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that approximately $23.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options, covering quarterly options, annual options, and a large number of structured products, will expire on December 26th. This signifies a "concentrated liquidation and repricing of risk exposure" in the BTC derivatives market at the end of the year. Prices may be structurally constrained before expiration, but uncertainty will increase after expiration. Data shows a large accumulation of open interest (OI) at the two closest levels to the current BTC spot price: a Put at $85,000 with 14,674 BTC, and a Call at $100,000 with 18,116 BTC. In terms of scale, this is not retail investor activity but rather large-scale long-term capital, most likely ETF hedging, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, and other institutions holding large amounts of BTC spot assets for extended periods. The put option at a strike price of $85,000 represents a buy-side activity, reflecting a strong demand for downside hedging at that price level. Similarly, the large number of call options with a strike price of $100,000 doesn't necessarily indicate a bullish market sentiment; rather, it reflects long-term capital's willingness to relinquish upward potential above that price level in exchange for immediate, certain cash flow and manageable overall risk. By buying put options below and selling call options above, the potential returns for BTC are compressed into a manageable range. Given a well-established option corridor of $85,000–$100,000, this corridor will exert a structural influence on BTC price before December 26th, characterized by "implicit upper resistance, passive lower buffer, and fluctuations within the middle range." (Source: ME)