According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, the Financial Times analysis indicates that next Tuesday's US non-farm payroll report will include data from October and November, ultimately providing policymakers and investors with a more complete picture of the US labor market and ending months of somewhat haphazard reporting. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to a three-year low after a deeply divided meeting this week, with several officials dissenting, the debate focusing on whether to prioritize addressing high inflation or a weak job market.
Citigroup economists point out that the upcoming jobs report may release more conflicting signals. The bank expects about 45,000 jobs to fall in October, but 80,000 to rise in November.
Citigroup economists suggest this rebound is likely more related to seasonally adjusted data than to a “real improvement in worker demand.” They also predict the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, compared to 4.4% in a Reuters poll of economists. The Federal Reserve’s own quarterly forecasts a median unemployment rate of around 4.5% by the end of the year.
