On December 15, CNBC, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that Kevin Hassett, once considered a "potential candidate" for Federal Reserve Chairman, has recently faced questioning from high-ranking officials who can directly influence former President Trump's decisions.
The contradiction lies in the fact that Hassett, initially seen as the frontrunner to succeed current Chairman Powell due to his close ties with Trump, is now also raising concerns about being "too close to the president." This pressure may explain why candidate interviews, initially canceled in early December, were rescheduled (at least for Walsh, they were completed last week).
Trump had previously told reporters that he had decided on his nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, but in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday, he surprised the market by stating that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh had joined Hassett as a finalist. Kalshi predicted that Hassett's chances of being elected would immediately fall in the market.
"Both Kevins are excellent," Trump said.
As of Monday, Hassett still led on the Kalshi platform with a 51% probability, but this was a significant drop from its peak of over 80% earlier this month; Warsh's probability, on the other hand, rose from about 11% in early December to 44%. Current headwinds are more of a boost to Warsh than a criticism of Hassett. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon praised both men at an event on Thursday, but some of his comments led the audience to believe he favored Warsh, the former Federal Reserve governor.
