Source: Grayscale ; Compiled by: Jinse Finance
Key points of this article
We anticipate an accelerated structural shift in the digital asset investment landscape in 2026, driven primarily by two themes: macro-level demand for alternative stores of value and increased regulatory transparency. These trends will collectively generate new capital, expand the reach of digital assets (particularly among wealth management advisors and institutional investors), and enable more comprehensive integration of public blockchains into mainstream financial infrastructure.
Therefore, we expect valuations to rise in 2026, marking the end of the so-called "four-year cycle" (the theory that cryptocurrency market movements follow a four-year cyclical pattern). We believe that Bitcoin's price is likely to reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
Grayscale anticipates that bipartisan legislation supporting cryptocurrency market structures will become U.S. law in 2026. This will allow for deeper integration of public blockchains with traditional finance, facilitate regulated trading of digital asset securities, and potentially allow both startups and established companies to conduct on-chain issuances.
The future of fiat currencies is increasingly uncertain; in contrast, we can be quite confident that the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026. We believe that due to the rising risks associated with fiat currencies, digital currency systems like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which offer transparent, programmatic, and ultimately scarce supply, will become increasingly popular.
We anticipate more crypto assets will be listed on exchange-traded products in 2026. These products have had a good start, but many platforms are still conducting due diligence and working to integrate cryptocurrencies into their asset allocation processes. As this process matures, we expect more cautious institutional capital to flow in during 2026.
We have also compiled a list of the top 10 crypto investment themes for 2026, reflecting the wide range of applications emerging from public blockchain technology. Each theme includes relevant crypto assets. They are:
The risk of dollar depreciation is driving demand for alternative currencies.
Clarity in regulatory policies will help promote the widespread adoption of digital assets.
The influence of stablecoins will further expand after the GENIUS Act is enacted.
Asset tokenization is at an inflection point
As blockchain technology becomes mainstream, privacy solutions are becoming essential.
Centralized artificial intelligence calls for blockchain solutions
DeFi is developing rapidly, with lending services leading the trend.
Mainstream adoption will require next-generation infrastructure
Focus on sustainable income
Investors default to seeking collateral
Finally, we anticipate that the following two topics will not have an impact on the crypto market in 2026:
Quantum computing: We believe that research and preparation for post-quantum cryptography will continue, but this issue is unlikely to affect valuations next year.
Digital Asset Treasury: Despite the high level of media attention it receives, we believe that Digital Asset Treasury will not be a major volatility factor in the digital asset market in 2026.
I. 2026 Digital Asset Outlook: The Dawn of the Institutional Era
Fifteen years ago, cryptocurrency was merely an experiment: there was only one asset (Bitcoin) with a market capitalization of approximately $1 million. Today, cryptocurrency has evolved into an emerging industry and a mid-sized alternative asset class, comprising millions of tokens with a total market capitalization of approximately $3 trillion (see Chart 1). Currently, more robust regulatory frameworks in major economies are deepening the integration of public blockchains with traditional finance and driving long-term capital inflows into the market.
Chart 1: Cryptocurrencies have now become a mid-sized alternative asset class.
Since its inception, cryptocurrency valuations have experienced four significant cyclical declines, averaging one every four years (see Chart 2). Three of these cyclical valuation peaks occurred 1 to 1.5 years after a Bitcoin halving, which also occurs every four years. The current bull market has lasted for over three years, and the most recent Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024, more than a year and a half ago. Therefore, many market participants believe that Bitcoin prices may have peaked in October, and 2026 will be a challenging year for cryptocurrency returns.
Chart 2: The valuation rise in 2026 will mark the end of the "four-year cycle" theory.
Grayscale believes the crypto asset class is in a sustained bull market, with 2026 marking the end of a four-year cycle. We expect valuations for all six major cryptocurrency sectors to rise in 2026, and we believe Bitcoin's price may surpass its previous high in the first half of 2026 .
Our optimistic attitude is based on two main pillars:
First, macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value will persist. Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, can be considered scarce digital commodities and alternative monetary assets. Fiat currencies (and assets denominated in fiat currencies) face additional risks due to high and continuously growing public sector debt and its potential long-term impact on inflation (see Chart 3). Scarce commodities—whether physical gold and silver or digital Bitcoin and Ethereum—can serve as a hedge against fiat currency risk in portfolios. We believe that as long as the risk of fiat currency devaluation continues to rise, portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum is likely to continue to grow.
Chart 3: The US debt problem raises questions about the credibility of low inflation.
Secondly, regulatory clarity is driving institutional investment in public blockchain technologies. It's easy to forget, but until this year, the U.S. government had pending investigations and/or lawsuits against many leading cryptocurrency companies, including Coinbase, Ripple, Binance, Robinhood, Consensys, Uniswap, and OpenSea. Even today, exchanges and other cryptocurrency intermediaries still lack clear spot market guidelines.
The ship has been slowly turning. In 2023, Grayscale won its lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), paving the way for spot crypto ETPs. In 2024, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs were listed. In 2025, Congress passed the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, and regulators shifted their stance on cryptocurrencies, working with the industry to provide clear guidance while continuing to focus on consumer protection and financial stability. Grayscale anticipates that Congress will pass bipartisan legislation on cryptocurrency market structures in 2026, which is likely to solidify the position of blockchain-based finance in the U.S. capital markets and encourage continued institutional investment (see Chart 4).
Chart 4: Increased funding may be a sign of improved institutional confidence.
We believe that new capital flowing into the crypto ecosystem is likely to primarily come from spot ETPs. Since the launch of Bitcoin ETPs in the US in January 2024, global net inflows into crypto ETPs have reached $87 billion (see Chart 5). Despite the early success of these products, the process of incorporating cryptocurrencies into mainstream portfolios is still in its early stages. Grayscale estimates that less than 0.5% of wealth managed in the US is allocated to crypto assets. This figure is expected to grow as more platforms complete due diligence, refine their capital markets assumptions, and incorporate cryptocurrencies into their model portfolios. Beyond wealth managed, some pioneers have already adopted cryptocurrency ETPs in their institutional portfolios, including Harvard Management and Mubadala (one of Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth funds). We expect this list to grow significantly by 2026.
Chart 5: Continuous Fund Inflows into Spot Cryptocurrency ETPs
As cryptocurrency prices become increasingly driven by institutional capital inflows, the nature of their price movements has changed. In every previous bull market, Bitcoin's price rose by at least 1000% within a year (see Chart 6). This time, however, the maximum annualized increase in Bitcoin's price over the year since March 2024 is approximately 240% . We believe this difference reflects the greater stability of institutional buying in this cycle compared to the retail-driven price surges of previous cycles. While cryptocurrency investment involves significant risks, we believe that, as of this writing, the likelihood of a deep and prolonged cyclical decline in prices is relatively low. Instead, we believe that a more stable upward trend, driven by institutional capital inflows, is more likely next year .
Chart 6: Bitcoin price did not experience a significant increase during this period.
A favorable macroeconomic environment may also limit some of the downside risk to token prices in 2026. The previous two cyclical peaks both occurred before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates (Chart 7). In contrast, the Fed cut rates three times in 2025 and is expected to continue cutting rates next year. Kevin Hassett, who is likely to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chairman, recently stated in an interview on "Face the Nation," "The American people can expect President Trump to choose someone who can help them get cheaper auto loans and easier access to low-interest mortgages." Overall, economic growth and the Fed's generally supportive policies should align with investors' favorable risk appetite and the potential returns of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Chart 7: Historically, cyclical peaks have been associated with Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
Like all other asset classes, cryptocurrency price movements are driven by both fundamentals and capital flows. Commodity markets are cyclical, and cryptocurrencies may experience cyclical downturns at some point in the future. However, we believe this will not occur in 2026. Fundamentals remain robust: we expect continued macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value, and a clearer regulatory environment will drive institutional investor investment in public blockchain technologies. Furthermore, new funds are still flowing into the market: by the end of next year, cryptocurrency ETPs are likely to appear in more portfolios. This cycle has not seen large-scale retail demand, but rather sustained buying of cryptocurrency ETPs from various portfolios. Supported by the overall macroeconomic environment, we believe these conditions will drive the cryptocurrency asset class to new highs in 2026.
II. Top Ten Crypto Investment Themes for 2026
Cryptocurrencies are a diversified asset class reflecting a variety of applications of public blockchain technology. The following sections outline Grayscale's views on the top 10 most important cryptocurrency investment themes for 2026, as well as two "less important" themes. For each theme, we've listed the tokens we consider most relevant.
Theme 1: The risk of dollar depreciation drives demand for alternative currencies
Related crypto assets: BTC, ETH, ZEC
The US economy faces debt problems (see Chart 3), which could ultimately undermine the dollar's status as a store of value. Other countries face similar issues, but the dollar is the world's dominant international currency, making the credibility of US policy more crucial for potential capital flows. We believe that a small subset of digital assets can be considered viable stores of value due to their high penetration, decentralization, and limited supply growth. This includes the two largest crypto assets by market capitalization: Bitcoin and Ethereum. Similar to physical gold, their utility stems in part from their scarcity and autonomy.
Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million and is entirely programmatically controlled. For example, we can confidently predict that the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026. The concept of a digital currency system with a transparent, predictable, and ultimately scarce supply is simple, but it is gaining popularity in today's economy due to the tail risks of fiat currencies. As long as macroeconomic imbalances causing fiat currency risks continue to worsen, portfolio demand for alternative stores of value is likely to continue to grow (Chart 8). Zcash, a smaller decentralized digital currency with privacy features, may also be suitable for investors who are allocating their portfolios to hedge against dollar depreciation (see Theme 5).
Chart 8: Macroeconomic imbalances may drive demand for other stores of value.
Theme 2: Clearer regulatory policies help promote the widespread application of digital assets.
Related crypto assets: almost all
In 2025, the United States made significant progress in cryptocurrency regulation, including passing the GENIUS Act (targeting stablecoins), rescinding the SEC's Accounting Notice 121 regarding custody, introducing universal listing standards for crypto ETPs, and addressing the issue of access to traditional banking services for the cryptocurrency industry (see Chart 9). Next year, we expect another major step forward with the passage of a bipartisan market structure bill. The House passed its version of the bill, the Clarity Act, in July, and the Senate has initiated the process. While many details remain to be finalized, the bill, in general, provides a set of traditional financial rules for the cryptocurrency capital markets, including registration and disclosure requirements, crypto asset classification, and insider rules.
In practice, if the US and other major economies can establish a more robust regulatory framework for crypto assets, it means that regulated financial services companies can include digital assets on their balance sheets and begin trading them on the blockchain. This could also foster on-chain capital formation, enabling both startups and established companies to issue regulated tokens. By further unlocking the full potential of blockchain technology, regulatory clarity should help boost the development of the entire crypto asset class. Given the potentially crucial role regulatory clarity can play in driving the development of the crypto asset class by 2026, we believe that the bipartisan divide in Congress over the legislative process should be viewed as a downside risk.
Chart 9: The United States has made significant progress in regulatory policy clarity by 2025.
Theme 3: The GENIUS Act will drive the expansion of stablecoins' influence.
Related crypto assets: ETH, TRX, BNB, SOL, XPL, LINK
Stablecoins experienced explosive growth in 2025: circulating supply reached $300 billion, monthly trading volume averaged $1.1 trillion in the six months ending November, the US Congress passed the GENIUS Act, and a large influx of institutional capital into the industry (Chart 10). We expect to see tangible results in 2026: stablecoins will be integrated into cross-border payment services, used as collateral in derivatives exchanges, appear on corporate balance sheets, and become an alternative to credit cards in online consumer payments. Continued growth in the prediction market may also drive new demand for stablecoins. Higher stablecoin trading volumes will benefit the blockchains recording these transactions (such as ETH, TRX, BNB, and SOL), as well as various supporting infrastructures (such as LINK) and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications (see Topic #7).
Chart 10: Stablecoins are poised for explosive growth.
Theme 4: Asset Tokenization at a Turning Point
Related crypto assets: LINK, ETH, SOL, AVAX, BNB, CC
Tokenized assets are currently small in scale: representing only 0.01% of the total market capitalization of global stocks and bonds (Chart 11). Grayscale anticipates rapid growth in asset tokenization over the next few years, driven by the increasing maturity of blockchain technology and a clearer regulatory environment. We believe it is not impossible for the scale of tokenized assets to grow by approximately 1000 times by 2030. This growth could bring value to blockchains that process tokenized asset transactions and various related applications. Currently, leading tokenized asset blockchains include Ethereum (ETH), BNB Chain (BNB), and Solana (SOL), but this list may change over time. In terms of related applications, Chainlink (LINK) demonstrates particularly strong competitiveness due to its unique software technology suite.
Chart 11: Huge Growth Potential for Tokenized Assets
Theme 5: As blockchain technology becomes mainstream, privacy solutions are imperative.
Related crypto assets: ZEC, AZTEC, RAIL
Privacy is an inherent part of the financial system: almost everyone expects their wages, taxes, net worth, and spending habits to remain hidden on public ledgers. However, most blockchains are transparent by default. If public blockchains are to integrate more deeply into the financial system, stronger privacy infrastructure is needed—a point that is becoming increasingly clear as regulation pushes for this integration. Investor focus on privacy could benefit projects like Zcash (ZEC), a decentralized cryptocurrency similar to Bitcoin with privacy features; Zcash saw a significant appreciation in Q4 2025 (see Chart 12). Other major projects include Aztec, a privacy-focused Ethereum Layer 2 protocol, and Railgun, a privacy-focused middleware for DeFi. We may also see increasing adoption of confidential transactions on leading smart contract platforms such as Ethereum (using the ERC-7984 protocol) and Solana (using the Confidential Transfers token extension). More robust privacy tools may also require stronger identity and compliance infrastructure for DeFi.
Chart 12: Cryptocurrency investors are paying more attention to privacy features
Theme Six: Centralized Artificial Intelligence Calls for Blockchain Solutions
Related crypto assets: TAO, IP, NEAR, WORLD
The fundamental alignment between cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence is closer and clearer than ever before. As AI systems increasingly concentrate in the hands of a few dominant players, concerns about trust, bias, and ownership have arisen, and cryptocurrency offers a foundational mechanism to directly address these risks. Decentralized AI development platforms like Bittensor aim to reduce reliance on centralized AI technologies; verifiable identity verification systems like World can distinguish between humans and intelligent agents in synthetic worlds; and networks like Story Protocol provide transparent and traceable intellectual property rights as identifying the source of digital content becomes increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, tools like X402—an open, zero-fee stablecoin payment layer supporting platforms like Base and Solana—enable low-cost, instant, micro-payments for economic interactions between intelligent agents or between machines and humans.
These components together form the early infrastructure of the “proxy economy,” in which identity, computation, data, and payments must all be verifiable, programmable, and censorship-resistant. Although the convergence of cryptography and artificial intelligence is still in its early stages and developing unevenly, it has already spawned one of the most attractive long-term use cases in the field, and protocols that build true infrastructure are expected to benefit as artificial intelligence becomes increasingly decentralized, autonomous, and economically active (Chart 13).
Chart 13: Blockchain offers solutions to some of the risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Theme 7: DeFi Accelerates Development, Lending Businesses Lead the Trend
Related crypto assets: AAVE, MORPHO, MAPLE, KMNO, UNI, AERO, RAY, JUP, HYPE, LINK
In 2025, driven by technological advancements and favorable regulatory factors, DeFi applications experienced strong growth. The rise of stablecoins and tokenized assets was a significant success story, and DeFi lending also saw substantial growth, with platforms like Aave, Morpho, and Maple Finance performing exceptionally well (see Chart 14). Meanwhile, decentralized perpetual futures exchanges like Hyperliquid saw continued growth in open interest and daily trading volume, comparable to some of the largest centralized derivatives exchanges. Looking ahead, the increasing liquidity, interoperability, and correlation with real-world prices of these platforms will make DeFi a reliable option for users looking to conduct financial transactions directly on-chain. We anticipate more DeFi protocols integrating with traditional fintech companies to leverage their infrastructure and large user base. We expect core DeFi protocols to benefit, including lending platforms like AAVE, decentralized exchanges like UNI and HYPE, related infrastructure like LINK, and blockchains supporting most DeFi activities (such as ETH, SOL, and BASE).
Chart 14: The scale and diversity of DeFi continue to grow.
Theme 8: Mainstream Adoption Will Require Next-Generation Infrastructure
Related crypto assets: SUI, MON, NEAR, MEGA
New blockchains continue to push the technological frontier. However, some investors argue that there is no need for more block space due to insufficient demand on existing blockchains. Solana itself is a prime example of this criticism: a fast but low-usage chain initially considered "redundant in block space," it became one of the industry's most successful cases in the subsequent wave of large-scale adoption. Not all high-performance blockchains today will follow a similar trajectory, but we expect some to. Superior technology does not guarantee widespread adoption, but the architecture of these next-generation networks makes them perfectly suited for emerging fields such as AI micropayments, real-time game loops, high-frequency on-chain transactions, and intent-based systems. Among these projects, we expect Sui to stand out with its technological advantages and all-in-one development strategy (see Chart 15). Other promising projects include Monad (parallelized EVM), MegaETH (ultra-fast Ethereum L2 cache), and Near (an AI-focused blockchain whose Intents product has already achieved success).
Chart 15: Next-generation blockchains like Sui offer faster and cheaper transactions.
Theme Nine: Focusing on Sustainable Income
Related crypto assets: SOL, ETH, BNB, HYPE, PUMP, TRX
Blockchains are not businesses, but they do possess measurable fundamental elements, including users, transaction volume, fees, total value locked (TVL), developers, and applications. Of these metrics, Grayscale considers transaction fees to be the most valuable fundamental element because they are the most difficult to manipulate and the most comparable across different blockchains (they also provide the best empirical fit). Transaction fees are analogous to "revenue" in traditional corporate finance. For blockchain applications, distinguishing between protocol fees/revenue and "supply-side" fees/revenue may also be important. As institutional investors begin allocating funds to the cryptocurrency space, we expect them to focus on blockchains and applications with high and/or growing fee revenues (excluding Bitcoin). Smart contract platforms with relatively high revenues include TRX, SOL, ETH, and BNB (Chart 16). Application-layer assets with relatively high revenues include HYPE and PUMP, among others.
Chart 16: Institutional investors may scrutinize fundamentals closely.
Topic 10: Investors default to seeking collateral
Related crypto assets: LDO, JTO
In 2025, US policymakers made two adjustments to staking policies that will allow more token holders to participate: (i) the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) clarified that liquidity staking does not constitute a securities transaction; and (ii) the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Treasury Department stated that investment trusts/exchange-traded products (ETPs) can be used to stake digital assets. These guidances on liquidity staking services are likely to benefit leading TVL-based liquid staking protocol like Lido and Jito on Ethereum and Solana. More broadly, the fact that crypto ETPs can be staked is likely to make them the default structure for holding Proof-of-Stake (PoS) token investment positions, leading to higher staking ratios and higher reward rates (Chart 17). In an environment where staking is more widely adopted, custodial staking via ETPs will provide a convenient way to earn rewards, while on-chain non-custodial liquidity staking offers composability advantages in DeFi. We expect this dual structure to persist for some time.
Chart 17: Proof-of-Stake Tokens Provide Native Rewards
Two unimportant themes for 2026
We anticipate that all of the aforementioned investment themes will contribute to the development of the cryptocurrency market in 2026. Two hot topics, however, are not expected to have a substantial impact on the cryptocurrency market next year: the vulnerability of quantum computing to cryptography and the evolution of digital asset treasuries (DATs). While these topics will generate considerable discussion, we believe they are not central to the market outlook.
If quantum computing technology continues to advance, most blockchains will eventually need to upgrade their encryption. Theoretically, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive a private key from a public key, generating a valid digital signature for paying users' cryptocurrencies. Therefore, Bitcoin and most other blockchains—and virtually everything else in the economy that uses encryption—will eventually need to be upgraded to accommodate post-quantum era tools. However, experts estimate that a quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin's encryption won't be available until at least 2030. Research into quantum risks and community responses may accelerate in 2026, but we believe this topic is unlikely to impact prices.
The situation is similar for DATs. Michael Saylor's pioneering strategy of incorporating digital assets into company balance sheets spawned dozens of imitators in 2025. We estimate that DATs hold 3.7% of Bitcoin, 4.6% of Ethereum, and 2.5% of SOL. Demand for these assets has declined from its mid-2025 peak: the largest DAT by market capitalization currently has a price-to-book ratio (mNAV) close to 1.0 (see Chart 18). However, most DATs have low leverage (or even no leverage at all), so they are unlikely to be forced to liquidate assets during market downturns. The largest DAT by market capitalization, Strategy, recently raised a dollar reserve fund to continue paying preferred stock dividends even if Bitcoin prices fall. We expect most DATs to operate similarly to closed-end funds, trading at a premium or discount to their net asset value, with infrequent asset liquidations. We believe these instruments are likely to become a long-term component of the cryptocurrency investment landscape, but are unlikely to be a major source of new token demand or selling pressure in 2026.
Chart 18: The DAT premium has narrowed, but the likelihood of an asset sale is low.
III. Conclusion
We anticipate a bright future for digital assets in 2026, primarily driven by macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value and increased regulatory transparency. Next year, the integration of blockchain finance with traditional finance is expected to further increase, attracting substantial institutional capital inflows. Tokens with clear application scenarios, sustainable revenue streams, and access to regulated exchanges and applications are likely to gain favor with institutional investors. Investors can expect a continuous expansion of the variety of crypto assets available through ETPs, with staking functionality being supported as much as possible.
At the same time, regulatory clarity and institutional approval may raise the bar for cryptocurrency projects entering the mainstream market. For example, cryptocurrency projects may need to meet new registration and disclosure requirements to be listed on regulated exchanges. Institutional investors may also overlook crypto assets without a clear purpose—even those with relatively high market capitalization. The GENIUS Act clearly distinguishes between regulated payment stablecoins (which enjoy specific rights and obligations under U.S. law) and other stablecoins (which do not enjoy the same rights). Similarly, we expect the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies to create a more pronounced differentiation between assets that can access regulated markets and institutional capital and those that cannot. Cryptocurrencies are entering a new era, and not all tokens will successfully transition from the old era to the new.
