On December 16, the U.S. will release the November nonfarm payrolls report. Markets expect a soft print of around 50,000 new jobs, with unemployment likely rising to 4.4%–4.5%. The tone is broadly weak. Analysts at FOREX.com note that any downside surprise may prompt earlier pricing of the next Fed rate cut; MUFG also warns that if both employment and unemployment deteriorate simultaneously, USD selling pressure could extend into year-end.
Crucially, both this NFP and the upcoming CPI report are “distorted datasets.” Due to the government shutdown, October’s unemployment rate was historically omitted, parts of CPI could not be re-surveyed, and November’s household-survey weights were forcibly revised. Officials have acknowledged abnormally high short-term variance. This means the reliability of a single headline number is lower than usual, and markets are more likely to trade on policy-direction expectations and risk-sentiment shifts, rather than the exact job-creation figure.
From a crypto perspective, weak NFP combined with noisy data produces a dual effect:
• Earlier rate-cut expectations may support BTC in the medium term via improved liquidity outlooks.
• But heightened uncertainty can trigger sharp near-term volatility across rates, USD, and crypto—making leveraged positions more vulnerable to liquidation.
Bitunix Analyst View:
In a phase of “low-credibility macro data,” the market’s core focus is not whether NFP is good or bad, but whether it meaningfully shifts the Fed’s policy narrative. Crypto traders should be cautious of liquidity sweeps and volatility around the release, and watch whether capital uses the uncertainty to deleverage and reprice positions.
