All you see are posts like this about an end of the Bitcoin 4 yr cycle. But all are coming from players deeply vested in keeping this going to sell more paper! I’m never going to say “it can’t happen”. But bitcoin’s price character past 14 yrs is pretty well defined. The arguments people are making for a change are superficial at best and smell of cope more than being practical arguments. 37 months from the last low, nothing about this price action is encouraging. By all measures of prior cycles, this one has topped. All one can do is trade what we’re given. My message is this is a time to be defensive and protect what gains have been made. And if the cries for an end of the 4 yr cycle prove correct, a chance to capture that new market dynamic will still be afforded.

‘By all measures of prior cycles, this one has topped.’ Literally zero.

These are all onchain and price derivative indicators though. Some big assumptions in what a typical cycle looks like at a top in these.