Arpa Network CEO Felix Xu pointed out that while the exact timing of the arrival of quantum computing may still be debated, one thing is undeniable: the quantum era is rapidly approaching and is inevitable. For the blockchain industry, now is a crucial time to proactively engage with and deeply understand zero-knowledge proofs , as this technology has the potential to become a vital line of defense for core crypto assets such as Bitcoin (BTC).
Quantum computing can easily solve mathematical problems.
In recent years, quantum computing has seen remarkable progress. Researchers are constantly pushing the limits of technology, opening new chapters in drug development, materials science, financial modeling, and complex optimization problems. However, behind these exciting advancements, an invisible time bomb is quietly approaching the Web3 ecosystem, and the security foundation of approximately four trillion US dollars worth of blockchain assets worldwide may be undermined by quantum computers.
Google has published verifiable research in Nature demonstrating that quantum chips can help learn the structure of various systems in nature, from molecules to magnets to black holes, at speeds 13,000 times faster than the best classical algorithms on the world's fastest supercomputer. What's striking about these results is that they are not based on artificially set benchmarks, as in previous examples, but on applied problems with direct scientific value.
Last December, Google announced the experimental results of its quantum chip Willow: a calculation was completed in less than five minutes, while even using the most advanced conventional computers, it would take about 100 trillion trillion years to complete the calculation. Quantum advantage is no longer an abstract issue, but is gradually moving towards reality.
Both Ethereum and Bitcoin rely on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which is highly vulnerable to attacks using Shor's Algorithm . Shor's Algorithm is a quantum algorithm designed in the 1990s for quickly calculating the prime factors of large integers, a problem completely unsolvable by classical computers.
How can the Shor's algorithm crack blockchains?
The Scholl algorithm utilizes the properties of quantum mechanics (quantum superposition, interference, and entanglement) to enable quantum computers to quickly factor large integer prime factors and calculate discrete logarithms, which is the foundation of the security of public-key encryption such as RSA and ECDSA.
This means:
- The private key can be calculated from the public key.
- Signatures can be forged.
- Ownership of assets can be seized directly.
In theory, quantum computing could even crack Bitcoin.
Modern blockchain systems, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are mostly built on mathematical problems that classical computers struggle to solve. However, quantum computers can fundamentally undermine these assumptions. Once a sufficiently powerful quantum computer emerges, the current public-key encryption system will become meaningless.
Potential attackers have formed an organization
Even more alarming is the fact that the potential attack pattern of collecting data now and decrypting it in the future has already begun. Potential attackers, including state-owned entities and highly organized hackers, are accumulating massive amounts of encrypted blockchain data, from transaction records and wallet public keys to escrow backups, waiting for quantum technology to mature and allow them to be cracked all at once. Every broadcast of a transaction, every public key exposed on the chain, is material for future attacks.
Is the end of the world coming?
More than six million bitcoins remain in early, quantum-sensitive account structures, including 1.1 million bitcoins that Satoshi Nakamoto never touched. These assets could very well be among the first victims of the so-called Q Day (the day a quantum computer is powerful enough to crack public-key cryptography).
Many in the industry still believe that the fear of quantum computing itself may be more dangerous than quantum computing itself. However, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has publicly warned that he predicts a 20% chance of Ethereum being hacked by quantum technology by 2030.
Could zero-knowledge proofs be a solution?
In this context, zero-knowledge proofs (ZK) may become a key solution. Zero-knowledge technology allows one party to prove a statement to another without revealing any underlying information. With technological advancements, the generation time of ZK proofs has been reduced from hours to seconds, and the file size has been significantly compressed, making it feasible for large-scale applications.
More importantly, zero-knowledge proofs can be built on quantum-resistant mathematical foundations. For example, zk-STARK based on hashing, or cryptographic systems based on lattice problems, do not rely on the quantum-vulnerable elliptic curve hypothesis. Even against powerful quantum computers, these structures are considered difficult to break.
Although quantum-resistant ZK proofs are still more expensive and costly to verify than current solutions, their technological value is irreplaceable. They provide a gradual upgrade path for blockchain, eliminating the need for a high-risk, comprehensive replacement of the underlying protocol in a short period. Instead, they allow the old and new cryptographic systems to coexist during the transition period, gradually improving overall security.
Quantum technology poses not only a threat to Web3, but also presents opportunities. Traditional computers can only generate predictable "pseudo-random numbers," which theoretically makes mechanisms such as validator selection and decentralized lotteries susceptible to manipulation. In contrast, quantum systems can generate truly unforgeable randomness, providing blockchains with a fair, verifiable, and unmanipulated random beacon, thus addressing a long-standing structural flaw.
Historical experience shows that underlying upgrades to large-scale blockchain protocols often take years, and decentralization itself makes coordination more difficult. Therefore, the industry cannot wait until quantum computers truly break ECDSA before hastily responding.
This article, "With the Quantum Era Approaching, Can Zero-Knowledge Proofs Be Bitcoin's Last Line of Defense?", first appeared on ABMedia, a ABMedia .
