Bitcoin trades near $89,000 today after its 14-day relative strength index fell below 30 in mid-November, a threshold traders track for capitulation.
A chart circulated by Global Macro Investor’s Julien Bittel, sourced to LSEG Datastream, overlays Bitcoin’s recent path with the average trajectory that followed the last five RSI breaks below 30 and traces a route that ends near $180,000 about 90 days after the oversold print.
The $180,000 waypoint is return math. With Bitcoin near $89,000, reaching $180,000 would imply a roughly 105% gain in roughly three months, or about 0.80% compounded daily.
The chart isn't a forecast distribution but an event-study average, meaning it can mask how different the paths were across those five historical instances.
Doomer evidence for the four year cycle and market top
Price action since October has kept the “cycle” argument active. Bitcoin set an October high at $126,223, then sold off into late November.
The decline reached a low near $80,697 on Nov. 21, a drawdown of about 36% from the October high.
That drop already sits inside the 35% to 55% drawdown band laid out in CryptoSlate’s cycle-timing framing, which mapped a trough zone of roughly $82,000 to $57,000 if the post-halving cadence remains the governing model.
Time is up: The case for why Bitcoin bear market cycle started at $126k
