Last night's non-farm payrolls data came out relatively smoothly, but it wasn't "good-looking" .
On the surface, the number of employed people exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate surged to 4.6% , a near four-year high. This combination is actually positive for expectations of a rate cut in January , but the market reaction has been lukewarm—the probability of a rate cut in January is only 23% on the polymarket and 24% on the CME, showing almost no upward movement.
The reasons are quite practical. First, the prolonged government shutdown led to distorted data collection , making this non-farm payroll report more of a sentiment indicator than a basis for decision-making. Second, before the January FOMC meeting, the December non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will be released, and that data will be the true "judge of life and death."
So you'll see that after the non-farm payrolls data came out last night, the emotionally sensitive market moved , such as Bitcoin; but in terms of fundamentals, only the Nasdaq rose slightly in the US stock market, and tech stocks are more sensitive to liquidity expectations.
At the same time, there is another variable that the market sees as a positive : the race for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman.
Warsh's chances of winning continued to decline, dropping to 22%, while Hassett rebounded to 54%. The core reason is that the White House leaked information that Trump would interview Waller . This turned what was originally a two-way choice into a three-way choice. Waller and Warsh share highly similar positions; both are the relatively "stable" type that Wall Street can accept. As a result, Waller siphoned off Warsh's votes .
Meanwhile, Hassett began frequently emphasizing the "independence of the Federal Reserve" and actively campaigning for himself, making it clear: don't kick me out of the race just because I have a good relationship with Trump. But this is precisely what Wall Street fears most— Trump now prefers to vote for his own people , and given his age, he's unlikely to tolerate betrayal. This is why Hassett's real adversary isn't Warsh, but rather Bessant, who also has a very close relationship with Trump.
Speaking of Bessant, he dropped another bombshell last night: early next year, the government may give each household a tax refund of $1,000-$2,000 , with approximately $100-150 billion going directly into people's pockets in the first quarter. This is basically the implementation version of Trump's "big spending" proposal last year, and now it's been officially approved.
Don't underestimate this kind of direct cash handout .
During the 2020 pandemic, the US did exactly that. Many people didn't lack a few thousand dollars, but had nowhere to spend their money, so it all flooded into the stock market and crypto . I know countless people who registered for exchanges, bought Dogecoin, and traded NFTs for the first time back then. That kind of "nationwide market frenzy" would have a huge impact if it happened again.
If the cash handouts are indeed implemented early next year, the strong start to 2026 could very well depend on this wave of sentiment and liquidity .
Of course, there are risks as well. For example, there could be a pause in interest rate cuts, a resurgence of inflation, and overheating in the job market. Also, the US government's temporary funding may only last until January 30, 2026 , raising the possibility of another shutdown. Everyone remembers how badly the cryptocurrency market fared during this year's 43-day shutdown. Furthermore, some funds that firmly believe in the "four-year cycle" may withdraw early next year; these are all potential variables.
But that's a story for another time.
Right now, there's only one real "test" —Friday's interest rate hike in Japan .
Interest rate hikes are already a consensus, but what the market fears most is a statement at the meeting: "We will continue to raise rates next year ." If this is compounded by a rapid appreciation of the yen (leading to a sharp drop in USD/JPY) , it would be a red alert for global risk assets, and cryptocurrencies wouldn't be spared.
So at this stage, don't rush to fantasize about a major upward trend. First, observe Japan, stay calm, survive, and then you'll be qualified to wait for the story to unfold.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Join Sister Miao and let's ride this bull market together!
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