How to achieve information arbitrage between financial forecasts on Polymarket and $BTC? Take the Bank of Japan's announcement of a 25 basis point interest rate hike today as an example. If Polymarket 100% predicts a 25 basis point hike, then betting on it at this point is no longer profitable. Prediction markets often move faster than news releases. When Polymarket reaches 100% accuracy, it means the market has already priced it in. Even a success rate exceeding 90% can be considered $BTC