On December 19th, Citigroup released its latest research report, raising its 12-month price target for Bitcoin to $143,000. The report, co-authored by strategists Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer, and Vinh Vo, timed the move to around Bitcoin's current price of approximately $88,000, effectively representing a 62% upside potential.
This prediction is based on three things: whether Wall Street is willing to continue pouring money into spot ETFs, whether Washington’s Clarity Act will be successfully implemented, and whether global sentiment toward “risk assets” can hold up.
ETF funds become the core driving force
According to CoinDesk, Citi's model predicts that approximately $15 billion in net inflows will pour into the cryptocurrency market through spot ETFs over the next year.
This money isn't just for buying cryptocurrencies; it's for placing Bitcoin in a standard asset allocation, essentially binding on-chain liquidity with traditional financial liquidity.
The analysis report points out that as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq maintain their rebound, the risk appetite of the Dow Jones and the technology sector will be reflected in Bitcoin through ETFs. Observing the monthly correlation coefficient, the linkage between Bitcoin and US stocks will continue to rise in the second half of 2025. In other words, this prediction is based on the link that "as long as the stock market doesn't crash, Bitcoin won't die."
The underlying logic for the $143,000 target price is simple: amplifying $15 billion in funds through futures leverage and the multiplier effect of market maker position recycling could potentially boost Bitcoin's total market capitalization by approximately one trillion dollars. If on-chain holdings and circulating supply maintain their current rate, the price per unit will approach the $140,000 range.
Regulatory certainty drives a second wave of adoption
The US government's attitude is another key factor. In the first year of the Trump administration, Congress put the Clarity Act on the list of priority bills, the core of which is to explicitly include Bitcoin under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Citigroup stated frankly that the biggest problem troubling institutions in the past was not volatility, but compliance risk. Only when the legal status of Bitcoin is no longer uncertain can asset management companies enter the market on a large scale.
The Citi report emphasizes:
Regulatory clarity is a key engine driving the second wave of adoption, which will eliminate compliance concerns that have long plagued institutional investors.
For Wall Street, the disappearance of regulatory noise means that net funds can allocate Bitcoin positions without restraint through ETFs, custodian accounts, or "over-the-counter contracts." Policy shifting from a drag to a boost is the second highway supporting the $143,000 target price.
Citigroup doesn't just make BTC; it also outlines a bear market path in its report, pointing out that if the global economy turns into a recession and liquidity dries up, Bitcoin may follow risk assets and plummet, with the worst-case scenario being a drop to $78,500.
The above is not investment advice.
