Vitalik: Prediction markets are the "cure" for social media, deflecting the wild opinions of emotional topics.

According to ME News, on December 21st (UTC+8), Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin posted on Farcaster, stating that prediction markets are a good remedy for irrational opinions on emotional topics. He used two screenshots as examples: Elon Musk previously posted that a civil war in the UK was "inevitable," while the prediction market Polymarket showed only a 3% probability of a civil war in the UK in 2024 (Vitalik believes 3% is still too high, as some bettors inflated the probability). Vitalik stated that many users on social media exaggerate and claim "something will definitely happen" to create panic or attract attention, but they are not held accountable for it; while prediction markets involve real money bets and are more likely to reflect true probabilities, thus combating these "irrational opinions." Vitalik then elaborated on his overall view on prediction markets: compared to social media (which creates panic without accountability) and mainstream media (clickbait), prediction markets have a stronger incentive for "truth-seeking." Speaking the truth earns real rewards, while lying incurs strong economic penalties. Checking Polymarket after discovering exaggerated news reveals an extremely low probability of such events, which can help maintain composure and prevent unrealistic hopes. Prediction markets act as an "antidote" to social media, providing a more rational and responsible way to aggregate public opinion. (Source: ME)