Mitsubishi UFJ: The US dollar is expected to continue to weaken by about 5% in 2026.

According to Mars Finance, citing Jinshi, Derek Halpenny, head of foreign exchange research at MUFG, pointed out that the US dollar may continue to depreciate in 2026, but the decline will be more moderate than this year. He emphasized that the dollar has peaked and is at the beginning of a multi-year downward cycle. He predicts the dollar index will fall by about 5% in 2026, a forecast consistent with the outlook for the euro to rise to 1.24 against the dollar. The main factor driving the dollar's weakness is the divergence in monetary policy: the Federal Reserve is expected to implement three to four more rate cuts in 2026, while the European Central Bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged.