Chainfeeds Summary:
Forget about bubbles; is the AI industry about to enter a period of accelerated investment? With the concentration of profits in the US stock market and spillover effects from non-US markets, which side are you on?
Article source:
https://x.com/tmel0211/status/2002965529989087594
Article Author:
Haotian
Opinion:
Haotian: Morgan Stanley has given a staggering figure: AI infrastructure capital expenditure is projected at $3 trillion, with less than 20% currently deployed. What does this mean? Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and other massive cloud providers are currently spending madly on building data centers, buying GPUs, and laying power infrastructure—and this is just the beginning. However, JPMorgan Chase offers a sober assessment of the actual benefits of this large-scale AI adoption, believing it will only boost profits for some companies in the short term and help giants optimize their profitability. The real benefits of a qualitative leap in AI productivity will take many years. Essentially, it points to one thing: 2026 will still be a year of frantic AI spending, but it's still just the investment phase, far from the harvest. BlackRock has proposed a concept called "Micro is Macro," arguing that the AI investments of a few companies already have a macroeconomic impact. Looking at the data, in 2025 (YTD), the equal-weighted S&P 500 will only rise by 3%, but the market capitalization-weighted version of leading technology companies will rise by 11%. This 8% difference may be due to the concentration of AI investment. Morgan Stanley is the most aggressive in its approach, setting a target of 7800 points for the S&P 500, representing a 14% increase from current levels, based on the continued strengthening of the profitability of the tech giants. However, JPMorgan Chase believes that as the dollar weakens, the AI dividend will spill over into the global supply chain, thus giving emerging markets a 10.9% annualized expected return, higher than the 6.7% for US large-cap stocks. Goldman Sachs also sides with the spillover view, giving emerging markets the same 10.9% expectation, believing that Europe (7.1%) and Japan (8.2%) have potential. In short, these are two completely different bets: BlackRock and Morgan Stanley are betting that the AI dividend will continue to be monopolized by US tech giants, while JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs are betting that AI is a global infrastructure upgrade, with dividends spreading to global non-US markets.
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