Analysts warn of a 22% plunge in Q4, calling the short-term rebound an illusion and a true recovery yet to come.
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According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin fell more than 22% in Q4 alone, making 2025 one of the weakest year-end seasons outside of a major bear market.
Bitcoin is currently down approximately 30% from its 2025 peak and trading below its year-to-date levels. This is projected to be its worst year-to-date performance since the massive bear market of 2018.
"The cryptocurrency market is attempting to grow, but it's not yet a recovery," said Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro. He noted that short-term momentum can be misleading.
Although the total market capitalization of the virtual asset market has recovered to $3 trillion, analysts warn that the rebound reflects fatigue rather than renewed confidence.
The Fear and Greed Index rose to 24, indicating that traders are somewhat easing from extreme pessimism, but risk appetite has not yet recovered. The market remains vulnerable to sharp reversals, and volatility remains particularly high during US trading hours.
While Bitcoin has recently shown a rebound, experts view this as a temporary technical rebound rather than a sign of a true recovery. The plunge of over 22% in the fourth quarter and negative year-to-date returns are likely to make 2025 the worst year since 2018.
Although market sentiment is somewhat easing from extreme fear, it will likely take considerable time for investors' risk appetite to fully recover. High volatility during US trading hours, in particular, suggests that the market remains unstable, necessitating a cautious approach from investors.
Joohoon Choi joohoon@blockstreet.co.kr
