The recent market can be summed up in one sentence: gold is soaring to new highs, while Bitcoin is struggling to stay afloat. Yesterday, the CME created another futures gap at the open, which was quickly filled. After it was filled, Bitcoin even pretended to be strong, briefly surging to $90,000 and even briefly standing above the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, looking like it was about to turn things around.
And what happened? Less than ten minutes later, reality hit again, with the daily chart closing below the 20-day moving average and a long upper shadow – a classic case of "a rally is just a sell signal." Gold, on the other hand, said nothing, directly hitting a new all-time high without a single wasted word.
Since the flash crash on October 10th, Bitcoin has basically never shown any real strength, spending most of its time suppressed below the moving averages. Now it's even more awkward, with all the short- and medium-term moving averages clustered together, indicating a direction is emerging, but it doesn't look like it's heading upwards.
Moreover, volatility is decreasing. It has closed below the 50-week moving average for six consecutive weeks, and the monthly MACD has already death cross. Experienced technical analysts know that a death cross on the monthly chart usually doesn't indicate a pullback, but rather a period of consolidation . This is why gold is currently hitting new highs, while Bitcoin is increasingly resembling a "high-volatility risk asset" rather than a safe-haven asset.
Cointelegraph put it bluntly: the engine of new demand for Bitcoin has basically stalled . ETF bonuses, election rallies, and the buying spree by treasury companies have all been exhausted; we're now in the tail end of the third phase of the rally—there's been some recovery, but not much new money.
Even MicroStrategy didn't buy any cryptocurrencies last week, instead accumulating $2.19 billion in US dollar cash reserves. Many people's first reaction to this is: "Oh no, are they going to run away?" But I'm more inclined to say: they're buying insurance for the "bear market."
What's truly frightening isn't the price drop itself, but the duration of that drop . If prices stagnate for an extended period, stories of high dividends, fundraising, and NAV become meaningless. Therefore, preparing cash now and postponing the most terrifying scenario of being "forced to sell" is actually a more rational approach.
On the other hand, if you look at Ethereum Treasury, it has already started selling ETH directly to pay off its debts, and it has even stopped showing the mNAV dashboard. The narrative has been downgraded to "I want to survive".
Returning to Bitcoin itself, there is indeed buying pressure around $85,000, but the problem is— there's resistance all above . Every rebound is met with selling pressure from trapped positions, moving averages, and the annual trend line. The 365-day and 50-week moving averages have all been breached, causing many money market models to automatically reduce their positions. This isn't driven by emotion; it's a programmed mechanism.
Therefore, the comparison is particularly striking: gold follows the logic of inflation and safe haven, with a smooth trend and stable capital; Bitcoin follows the logic of risky assets, with slow demand and heavy selling pressure.
In summary, the current market is driven by a desire for security, not by hype. As gold continues to reach new highs, Bitcoin needs to ask itself – is it truly "digital gold" or simply a "highly volatile asset"?
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