Original Odaily( @OdailyChina )
Author/ Wenser ( @wenser2010 )
As a "barometer of the cryptocurrency market," Strategy's stock price has always been a major driver of market sentiment, with its performance closely linked to key factors such as cash flow stability and index position. Recent news indicates that from December 15th to 21st, Strategy raised $748 million through the sale of common stock, increasing its cash reserves to $2.19 billion, and has suspended Bitcoin purchases; the company currently holds approximately $60 billion worth of Bitcoin.
The key questions facing both the crypto market and Strategy right now are: when will the stock price recover from its downward trend? And when should investors position themselves in MSTR stock? Odaily will provide a brief analysis of these three questions in this article.
A Question About the Origins of Strategy's Decline: The MSCI Index Removal Controversy
Looking back at the stock price decline of Strategy in the third and fourth quarters, apart from the systemic downward shock to the industry caused by the "October 11 crash" and the shrinking buying power in the crypto market, the most direct cause was actually the "Strategy may be removed from the MSCI index" incident in October.
Strategy's current status: Unrealized gains exceed $10.1 billion, with an annualized return of approximately 24%.
According to on-chain analyst Ember's monitoring , as of December 22, Strategy (MSTR) still held 671,268 BTC, worth $60.441 billion, with an average cost of $74,972 and a floating profit of $10.114 billion. In contrast, BitMine, a leading ETH treasury firm, had an average ETH holding price of $3,884 and incurred a floating loss of $3.37 billion. In this respect, the resilience of BTC compared to ETH is still evident.
On December 15th, Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of Strategy, posted that Strategy holds 671,268 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of $74,972, representing a year-to-date Bitcoin return of 24.9%. Based on the data, Strategy remains a high-performing blue-chip stock.
Despite the overall performance of Bitcoin treasuries, limited by a 6% annual decline in BTC, only one Bitcoin treasury company outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 index in 2025 (with a year-to-date return of 16%), according to a report from BitcoinTreasuries.net. This was The Blockchain Group, headquartered in France, whose stock price surged approximately 164% since January 1st. In contrast, Strategy's stock price fell 12%, Metaplanet's fell by nearly a third, and Nakamoto, which raised over $600 million to buy Bitcoin, has seen its market capitalization plummet by over 98%.
MSCI Index Removal Controversy: Proposal to Ban Digital Asset Holdings from Exceeding 50% of Index Holdings
In October of this year, following client inquiries, MSCI proposed removing companies with digital asset holdings accounting for 50% or more of their total assets from its global benchmark indices. MSCI believes these companies are more like investment funds, and funds are not included in its index system.
This move quickly drew criticism and rebuttals from relevant companies: Strategy warned that it would cause sharp fluctuations in the index and contradict the US government's policy of promoting innovation in digital assets; in addition, Strategy strongly urged the MSCH Stock Index Committee to abandon a proposal; many relevant companies stated that they are companies engaged in actual operations and developing innovative products, and that the proposal unfairly discriminates against the crypto industry.
The two sides engaged in heated debate on this issue: MSCI argued that digital asset reserves (DATs) companies like Strategy and BitMine are more like investment funds than traditional operating businesses; Strategy countered that because IFRS reporting companies can price Bitcoin at cost, while US GAAP requires quarterly fair value marking, the rule is difficult to apply consistently. If Bitcoin prices fluctuate or accounting standards differ, companies holding Bitcoin assets will "drastically move in and out" of major indices, causing confusion for index providers and investors.
The market reacted differently, with many differing opinions.
Potential impact of Strategy's removal from the MSCI index: Could lead to a cryptocurrency sell-off of up to $15 billion.
Following the MSCI index removal controversy, analysts from various institutions have offered their opinions:
- JPMorgan analysts estimate that if Strategy is removed from the MSCI index, passive funds tracking the index may be forced to sell up to $2.8 billion worth of Strategy shares, resulting in a passive capital outflow of approximately $2.8 billion from the market.
- If MSCI proceeds with its plan to remove crypto asset treasury companies from its indices, these companies could be forced to sell up to $15 billion worth of cryptocurrencies . The group opposing MSCI's proposal, "BitcoinForCorporations," predicts, based on a verified preliminary list of 39 companies, that these companies, with an adjusted total market capitalization of $113 billion, would face an outflow of $10 billion to $15 billion; Strategy accounts for 74.5% of the affected total market capitalization after the adjustment.
- Some analysts say this move could cost the company, which has a large Bitcoin hoarding, up to $9 billion in stock demand and weaken the appeal of the entire sector.
- In December, Strategy Security passed the Nasdaq 100 index adjustment, marking its first successful test since joining the index last December.
- Analysts at Wall Street investment banks Jefferies and TD Cowen point out that if Strategy is ultimately removed from the MSCI index, other indices in the global financial markets may follow suit, including the Nasdaq 100, the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index, and the FTSE Russell index from the London Stock Exchange Group.
- As of December 20, the Nasdaq 100 index has retained Strategy. The CRSP declined to comment on whether it is considering removing Strategy. A spokesperson for the London Stock Exchange Group said that it will continue to monitor the matter , but responses to related inquiries will follow its internal management procedures.
- Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le have written to MSCI arguing that the company is an operating entity rather than a passive investment vehicle.
MSCI is currently conducting a public consultation and will announce its final decision on January 15th next year.
A second question: Can Strategy become "too big to fail"? This question serves as a key indicator of the Lindy effect in the DAT (Data Technology and Application) field.
The Lindy effect suggests that the longer something has existed, the greater the likelihood that it will continue to exist in the future.
For example, classic works, including the Bible and the Analects, are more likely to be passed down than current bestsellers and celebrity autobiographies.
Previously, Strategy founder Michael Saylor famously stated that "if MicroStrategy can accumulate 5% of the total Bitcoin supply, the price of Bitcoin will reach $1 million. He further stated that if the holding percentage reaches 7%, each Bitcoin will be worth $10 million." He described this action as providing upward momentum for the network.
Previously, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee analyzed and affirmed Strategy's move to build up a $1.4 billion cash reserve, stating that "although Strategy's stock price has fallen by more than 50% in the past six months, this cash reserve will allow the company to continue paying shareholder dividends during the Bitcoin price decline without having to sell its $61 billion Bitcoin holdings." He also pointed out that during the last Bitcoin downturn, Strategy's stock price traded below its net asset value (NAV), and building the cash reserve was precisely to prepare for that situation.
According to TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza, Strategy pays approximately $824 million in interest and dividends annually.
Based on the news that Strategy's cash reserves have increased to $2.19 billion, Strategy's "cash flow crisis" can be postponed until at least the second half of 2027.
Three questions about whether there is still buying interest in Strategy's stock: Are funds managed by billionaires and national-level funds still buying?
Aside from the Q3 shareholder information we previously discussed in our article "Stagery's Stock Price Halved Yet It Still Attracts Long-Term Capital Investment: Unveiling Strategy's 'Mysterious Shareholder Group'," Strategy stock has maintained strong buying interest in the recent market. Latest news today indicates that Strategy (MSTR)'s daily trading volume has surpassed that of banking giant JPMorgan Chase. Furthermore, other buyers are primarily large-scale funds managing assets.
A billionaire's hedge fund purchased over 390,000 shares of MSTR, worth $65 million.
On December 17, Point72 Asset Management, a hedge fund owned by billionaire Steve Cohen , purchased 390,666 shares (approximately $65 million) of Bitcoin treasury Strategy (MSTR) stock.
The National Pension Service of South Korea: Strategy's stock holdings increased to $93 million.
On December 10, BitcoinTreasuries.NET published an article disclosing that the National Pension Service (NPS) of South Korea, with assets of $1 trillion, has increased its holdings in Strategy (MSTR), a publicly traded company that holds Bitcoin, to $93 million.
Conclusion: January 15th may be the final moment for taking over MSTR shares.
Previously, although Citigroup significantly lowered its target price for Strategy, a publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company, from $485 to $325 , it maintained its "buy" rating, demonstrating institutional investors' long-term confidence in MSTR. Whether MSCI will retain Strategy as a stock on January 15th next year may be the final decision regarding the acquisition of MSTR shares.
Before that, whether to buy at the buy the dips or wait for the right opportunity depends on the investor's individual risk appetite.
