Whales are aggressively buying HYPE during dips, with total accumulated value exceeding $21.5 million around the current price level, indicating that selling pressure near support is showing signs of being absorbed.
Large holder buying activity, outflows from the exchange, and easing leverage are converging in the $22–$24 range. This doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal, but it could significantly alter the risk profile as the price approaches support.
- Whales accumulated over $21.5 million in hype as prices retreated to the $22–$24 range, indicating confidence rather than chasing the upward momentum.
- A prolonged negative spot netflow implies that the supply of goods available for sale on the exchange is shrinking, making prices more sensitive to demand.
- The Longing positions of top traders and stable funding indicate a "reset" of leverage, reducing the risk of volatility due to liquidation.
Whales absorbed selling pressure as HYPE retreated to the $22–$24 support zone.
Large wallets significantly bought HYPE during the dip, bringing the total accumulated holdings to over $21.5 million around the current price level, thereby weakening downward pressure near support.
Over two months, a group of whales accumulated 427,441 HYPE worth $11.58 million at an Medium price of $27.09. In just five days, another wallet purchased an additional 398,830 HYPE worth approximately $10 million at around $25.22.
Notably, buying activity occurred when the price slipped to the $22–$24 range, rather than during the upward momentum phase. This behavior typically reflects "conviction buying" rather than momentum-driven buying.
Furthermore, some of the accumulation occurred at prices higher than the current level but continued to be held. This suggests that selling pressure has been partially absorbed, rather than amplified.
However, whale accumulation does not necessarily mean an immediate reversal. The data primarily shows that the support zone is becoming stronger, thereby changing the risk/reward ratio as the price approaches the Dip of the trading range.
HYPE's Falling Wedge pattern is approaching a decisive point.
HYPE is narrowing within a clear Falling Wedge , with the price clinging to the lower edge around $22.26, which is typically a signal of weakening downward momentum and a possible breakout phase.
A Falling Wedge structure typically reflects weakening selling pressure, not a strong continuation of a downtrend. Currently, the price remains within the compression range, increasing the likelihood of a volatile breakout once the pattern is complete.
The RSI is at 35.26, while the RSI Medium is near 34.12, indicating an oversold condition but without a clear new downward extension. This is consistent with the "slowdown" trend of the sellers.
Recent candlesticks have formed shallower Dip compared to previous dips from $48 and $35.92. This change in slope typically implies that sellers are gradually losing control over time.
Nevertheless, resistance remains in place. The first reaction point is near $29.94, while the broader breakout zone is near $35.92. Therefore, confirmation still depends on breaking out of the wedge and maintaining momentum above these levels.
In the current context, the probability of a volatile breakout is increasingly skewed towards an upward trend, but this will only be "triggered" when the structure is definitively resolved.
Negative spot netflow indicates that the supply of goods for sale on the exchange is shrinking.
Negative net flow on the spot market indicates that HYPE is being withdrawn from the market even as prices fall, implying that holders are less inclined to sell immediately and that the supply of liquidation tends to contract.
On December 23rd, HYPE recorded a net outflow of approximately $971,000, extending the prolonged net selling trend. This is a supporting signal for the accumulation narrative, not solely based on price movements.
In earlier stages, the outflow was even deeper, exceeding -$30 million to -$50 million, suggesting that significant distribution may have occurred. Importantly, net flow has not yet turned positive despite weak prices.
When an asset exits the market during a downturn, the supply of assets ready to sell immediately typically decreases. This doesn't create an immediate reversal, but it makes prices more sensitive to any small shifts from the demand side.
Combined with the narrowing descending Falling Wedge , once the structure is broken, even moderate buying pressure can trigger a larger-than-normal price reaction due to a "depletion" of selling supply on the exchange.
Top traders on Binance are still leaning towards Longing , but not in overwhelming numbers yet.
Top traders on Binance are leaning towards Longing positions at 61.65%, indicating that expectations of an upward reaction still exist despite the weak HYPE price around $24.
As of December 23rd, 61.65% of top trader accounts held Longing and 38.35% held Short, bringing the Longing/ Short ratio to approximately 1.61. Importantly, this trend persisted when prices were low, instead of a sell-off of Longing.
However, the bias level does not yet show the "overcrowding" often seen in previous extreme euphoria phases. The proportion remains below the thresholds of excessive optimism, implying a controlled level of confidence.
Amid whale accumulation and decreasing supply on the exchange, the Longing bias of professional traders adds an extra layer of "cushion" to downside risk, but it is still necessary to monitor the reaction at resistance levels once the wedge pattern is broken.
Stable funding open interest (OI) weighting indicates that leverage pressure has eased.
The funding rate (OI-weighted) is at a slightly positive 0.0047% and is not surging, indicating that leverage has been re-established after a period of forced position closures, reducing the risk of volatility due to liquidation.
Previously, funding had plummeted to below -0.02%, often associated with forced unwinds. The fact that funding is no longer falling sharply implies that the "leverage Dump " phase may be over.
This balance is important because it limits volatility caused by chain liquidations. At the same time, when funding is neutral, spot cash flows tend to have a cleaner impact on price direction.
Therefore, if HYPE breaks out of the Falling Wedge pattern, the upward move could occur with less "friction" from the Derivative market. In many historical contexts, cooling funding often precedes structural reversals, although this is not always the case.
The signal cluster converges at the key region, but confirmation remains a prerequisite.
HYPE is at a pivotal point as whale accumulation, supply on the floor decrease, leverage stabilizes, and a narrowing descending Falling Wedge emerge, making a technical rebound scenario seem more likely than a deep decline.
Overall, signals suggest that the downside risk is encountering greater resistance near support, rather than easily sliding further. However, the market still needs confirmation from price action: a breakout of the wedge structure and vượt of key reaction zones.
Without confirmation, the price may continue to fluctuate within a compression range or retest the lower edge. Conversely, when the structure resolves in an upward direction, the current supply-demand sensitivity may lead to a larger reaction amplitude.
Final assessment
Whale accumulation and reduced supply on the floor are weakening downward pressure near key support levels.
The cooling leverage and the narrowing Falling Wedge pattern are increasing the probability of a "relief" rebound, provided the price gives a confirmation signal of a breakout from the structure.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does it mean when whales buy hype during a dip?
Whales buying when prices slide to the $22–$24 range often indicates they consider this an attractive price level for accumulation. This can help absorb selling pressure and reduce the risk of a rapid slowdown, although it doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal.
What is the Falling Wedge pattern on HYPE signaling?
A Falling Wedge reflects weakening selling pressure as the price range narrows. If the price breaks out of the wedge and maintains momentum, the probability of a rebound increases; otherwise, the price may continue to compress or retest the lower edge.
What does HYPE's negative net flow on the spot market indicate?
Negative netflow means that the amount of HYPE withdrawn from the exchange is greater than the amount deposited, usually indicating that investors are reducing their intention to sell immediately. When the supply of goods available for sale narrows, prices may react more strongly to small changes in demand.
Are the Longing/ Short ratios of top traders reliable for predicting prices?
The Longing/ Short ratio reflects the degree of positional bias among large groups of traders, but it is not an absolute predictor. It is useful when combined with other data such as whale accumulation, technical structure, and leverage conditions to assess risk.
What are the benefits of a stable funding rate for a recovery?
Stable and slightly positive funding indicates that leverage is not excessively skewed, reducing the risk of volatility due to chain liquidations. Therefore, if a breakout occurs, volatility is likely to be "cleaner" and more dependent on spot supply and demand.
