Barclays raises its forecast for US GDP growth in the fourth quarter.

Barclays slightly raised its forecast for US GDP growth in the fourth quarter to 2.0% (an increase of about 0.3 percentage points), suggesting that the Fed will view the unexpected surge in GDP in the third quarter as a signal that underlying demand remains strong.

A research report by Barclays economists highlights continued expansion in consumption, although fluctuations in certain areas, such as net exports, may exaggerate the overall growth picture.

What does the Fed see in the third-quarter GDP acceleration?

Barclays suggests that the Fed is likely to XEM the faster-than-expected US GDP growth in the third quarter as a sign that underlying demand remains strong.

In Barclays' assessment, some highly volatile components, such as net exports, could exaggerate the overall growth momentum, making the overall picture appear hotter than it actually is in the short term.

However, the main support highlighted is the continued expansion of consumer spending. According to Barclays, this is important evidence of the fundamental resilience of the economy, rather than just temporary factors.

GDP forecast for Q4 and outlook for the first half of 2025

Barclays has raised its year-on-year (YoY) forecast for US GDP growth in the fourth quarter to 2.0%, an increase of approximately 0.3 percentage points.

The report notes that growth could be volatile in the first half of 2025. However, Barclays believes that by the end of the year, aggregate demand will have accumulated significant momentum, laying the foundation for a continued growth trajectory.

In the cryptocurrency market, the core argument lies in the expectation that the Fed will monitor the strength of underlying demand, particularly consumer demand, when assessing inflation risks and guiding policy in the coming quarters.