Will Bitcoin Head for $100,000 After Options Expiration? A Year-End Volatility Trigger Awaits
As Bitcoin (BTC) shows signs of slowing ahead of Christmas, market attention is focused on a major options expiration event. Experts predict that a reversal could occur after this event, which acts as a "cap for price increases."
On the 24th (local time), the day before Christmas, Bitcoin hovered around $87,000 (approximately 126.14 million won). Unlike precious metals like gold and silver, which are showing strength by hitting record highs, BTC has been stuck in the $85,000-$90,000 range for several weeks.
Market research firm QCP Capital recently analyzed in a report that "Bitcoin is taking a breather ahead of a large-scale contract expiration," adding, "Year-end expirations typically bring 5-7% price volatility to Bitcoin, and this time will be no exception." This expiry event, scheduled for this Friday, will see the expiration of approximately 300,000 BTC options contracts, estimated at approximately $23.7 billion (approximately KRW 34.3028 trillion). Additionally, 446,000 options contracts related to IBIT (spot ETFs) will also expire.
In particular, on the derivatives exchange Deribit, this expiration represents more than half of all open interest, and the "maximum pain level" has been set at $95,000. QCP predicted, "The direction of the price movement will become clearer depending on whether downward positions are reset after expiration."
Some market observers interpret this event as a "lid" preventing further price declines. Cryptocurrency trader David Eng argued, "Before expiration, Bitcoin is bound to exhibit a dull and bearish trend. After expiration, the market structure will change, and breaking through $100,000 (approximately 144.99 million won) could become the first objective." He described this situation as "a textbook setup," adding, "Volatility has been artificially suppressed and will likely ease back on schedule."
This trend contrasts with the precious metals market. Gold (XAU/USD) surpassed $4,500 (approximately 6.52 million won) per ounce for the first time ever, and silver, palladium, and platinum are also continuing their bullish trend. However, market expert Garrett predicted, "The surge in precious metals is merely a short-term short squeeze (a rise due to the liquidation of bearish bets)." He added, "If a correction begins, gold will also fall, and the funds will likely flow into BTC and Ethereum (ETH)."
Cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe said, "The stock market will hit a short-term high first, and then money will flow into cryptocurrencies," adding, "This is a period of calm before the break, a period of simple waiting."
The recent stagnant market conditions, coupled with the low trading volume typical of the Christmas season, make it difficult to discern a clear direction. However, expectations are growing that the market structure itself could change along with position adjustments after the expiration of large-cap options.
Article Summary by TokenPost.ai
๐ Market Interpretation
The Bitcoin market has entered a wait-and-see mode as the Christmas season overlaps with a major options expiration event. However, optimism is emerging that the upside potential could increase as positions are consolidated after expiration.
๐ก Strategy Points
The size of a 300,000 BTC options contract could trigger short-term volatility. For the psychological resistance level of $100,000 to materialize, precious metals capital outflows and a structural shift in buying power would be required.
๐ Glossary
- Option expiration: The closing date of a derivatives transaction where the contract ends at a specific point in time.
- Max Pain Level: The point at which most investors suffer losses. Prices tend to converge to this level when the option expires.
- Short squeeze: A sudden surge in prices that occurs when short sellers buy to avoid losses.
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TP AI Precautions
This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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