Is Bitcoin Still in a Bull Market? Experts' Forecasts Differ
There are mixed views on whether the Bitcoin bull market will continue into 2026. Some experts are optimistic, suggesting that despite the recent price decline, the bull market is still in its "mid-stage" phase, while others advocate a conservative approach, predicting next year will be a year of correction.
On October 6th, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 (approximately 182.75 million won), but a few days later, it entered a downward trend due to massive liquidations worth $19 billion (approximately 27.54 trillion won). The current price is around $87,015 (approximately 126.21 million won), down approximately 6% over the past two weeks.
Despite these adjustments, one of the people offering an optimistic outlook is Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of the 50T Fund. He argues that the Bitcoin bull market is "still in its mid-stages," and analyzes that "Kraken's IPO and the rise in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are driving inflows from traditional finance (TradFi) funds." Kraken recently announced that it had raised $800 million (approximately KRW 1.1596 trillion), valuing the company at $20 billion (approximately KRW 28.992 trillion), and reportedly filed an IPO application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in early November.
Meanwhile, Urien Timmer, director of global macroeconomic research at Fidelity Asset Management, predicts 2026 will be Bitcoin's "bear year." He stated, "Past Bitcoin bear markets have lasted about a year on average," and added, "Next year, support will likely be between $65,000 and $75,000, with a potential "local low" near $65,000 (approximately 94.21 million won)."
Experts also differ in their interpretations of market structure and trends. Jimmy Shu, COO of Axis, an on-chain yield platform, noted that "judging the future solely based on Bitcoin's four-year cycle is unreasonable," and that "fundamental factors such as global liquidity and increased national adoption are having a greater impact." He added, "If global liquidity continues to weaken, $75,000 (approximately 108.85 million won) could actually be a 'higher low' for a long-term bull market."
Meanwhile, according to blockchain information analysis firm Nansen, "smart money" investors, based on recent returns, have been shorting (betting on a decline) most major cryptocurrencies, excluding Avalanche (AVAX) and PumpPun (PUMP) tokens. This suggests a significant number of investors anticipate further market corrections in the short term.
Expert analysis is broadly divided into two camps. Those who emphasize Bitcoin's past "four-year cycle" predict price corrections and recommend a cautious approach. Conversely, those who increasingly view price movements as driven by macroeconomics and liquidity flows interpret a one- or two-year correction as part of a larger upward cycle.
๐ Market Interpretation
The Bitcoin market outlook for 2026 is clearly divided. Some believe the bull market is still valid, interpreting a prolonged bull cycle as a result of continued inflows without a global capital outflow. However, the possibility of price corrections and increased volatility remains, necessitating careful position adjustments in this market.
๐ก Strategy Points
- Increase short positions: Need to prepare for the possibility of a short-term adjustment.
- Keep an eye on Kraken's IPO and M&A trends: Expect an influx of traditional funds.
- Observation of macroeconomic conditions (global liquidity, etc.) is an important variable.
๐ Glossary
- 4-year cycle: An empirical rhythm that shows that the price of Bitcoin rises and falls every four years, centered around the Bitcoin halving.
- Supercycle: A persistent upward trend that follows the long-term macroeconomic trend.
Smart Money: High-performance investors classified as strategic traders due to their superior returns.
- Short position: A strategy that bets on a decline in asset prices.
๐ก Want to know more? AI-prepared questions for you:
A. Kraken's IPO is seen as a catalyst for traditional financial capital to flow into the cryptocurrency market. This is seen as a key indicator driving both increased demand for Bitcoin and market expansion.
A. It has fallen from its all-time high of $126,000 to around $39,000. This suggests a short-term plunge due to events such as forced liquidations.
A. The four-year cycle refers to a past pattern of repeated ups and downs centered around Bitcoin's halving. A super cycle refers to a long-term trend in which a larger economic trend dominates the market.
A. The reason for the differing interpretations is due to different analytical models. Those who emphasize past data predict a correction, while those who emphasize macroeconomic indicators see it as part of a long-term upward trend.
A. This is interpreted as a signal that a short-term price decline is possible. However, investment strategies have different time frames, so they may conflict with a long-term perspective.
TP AI Precautions
This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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