Bitcoin (BTC) is fluctuating within a narrow range ahead of Christmas, currently priced at around $87,700, a drop of nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached on October 6th. This year's Christmas didn't see the expected "holiday rally," but CZ posted a message to encourage everyone.
CZ: Initially defined by emotion
In response to market volatility, Binance founder CZ(CZ) posted on the X platform, reminding the public to focus on FUD (Factory Uncertainty) rather than the price itself. He stated:
Every time Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, has the thought "I should have bought it sooner" ever crossed your mind?
Actually, those who "bought early" didn't enter the market at historical highs, but rather bought in a time filled with fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
Merry Christmas everyone!
CZ defined "early" as a sentiment low point rather than a chronological order, suggesting that the current $87,000 range is at a psychological discount level. This statement was quickly circulated in the market but did not immediately reverse price movements, indicating that sentiment remains cautious.
Christmas Prices Over the Years: Low Points Often Accompanied by Long-Term Turning Points
Looking back at the Christmas market over the past seven years, low points have often become the starting point for the next round of upward movement. In Christmas 2018, Bitcoin was only $4,000; after the FTX crisis in 2022, the price hovered around $16,800. In the twelve months following each of these low points, the price doubled and emerged from a bull market bottom, respectively.
In contrast, prices reached a high of $14,000 during Christmas 2017, only to be followed by a downturn the following year. History shows that extreme sentiment during the Christmas season can serve as a market thermometer.
Binance's long-term data also indicates that the MVRV Z-Score has fallen into oversold territory in the past two weeks, and the on-chain holding days indicator shows an accumulating trend, releasing a relatively friendly signal for long-term buying.
Institutional View: FUD is Viewed as a Discount Period Rather Than a Risk
Large institutional funds have reacted relatively calmly to the pullback. On-chain observations show that addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC saw a net increase of approximately 26,000 this month, indicating that long-term capital is inclined to use the 30% drop to rebuild positions. On the other hand, the number of addresses holding less than 1 BTC has decreased by more than 4% since the beginning of December, suggesting that retail investors have either stopped out or moved to the sidelines.
Policy remains supported by positive expectations surrounding the Trump administration's tax cuts and infrastructure spending, but investors need to first confront the reality of high interest rates coupled with reduced liquidity in the crypto market. Market consensus leans towards short-term volatility and a long-term bullish outlook, coinciding with the "fear window" mentioned by CZ.
