Chainfeeds Summary:
The main theme of the crypto derivatives market in 2025 is the shift from highly leveraged retail speculation to repricing driven by the parallel evolution of institutional capital, compliant infrastructure, and on-chain technology.
Article source:
https://foresightnews.pro/article/detail/93421
Article Author:
CoinGlass
Opinion:
CoinGlass: During the 2024–25 easing and bull market window, BTC is closer to a high-beta risk asset than an independent inflation hedge. Its full-year correlation with global M2 (0.78%) masked the structural decoupling in the second half of the year, while the November decline confirmed its high-beta risk asset nature. Buying BTC was not about hedging against inflation, but about long on liquidity; once liquidity tightened, BTC would be the first to be sold off. Against the backdrop of the Fed initiating a rate-cutting cycle and massive global central bank easing, BTC surged from $40,000 to $126,000. This excess return essentially came from its 2.5-3.0 beta coefficient, i.e., a leveraged response to liquidity expansion, rather than independent value discovery. In 2025, stablecoins and DAT will expand in both scale and application scenarios, beginning to directly connect with traditional finance at the boundary level. The total market capitalization of stablecoins once exceeded $230 billion, with an annual on-chain settlement volume of approximately $1.5 trillion. Supported by legislation such as the GENIUS Act, they have gradually solidified as the underlying settlement layer for cross-border payments and on-chain finance. The DAT model, through compliant equity or fund vehicles, provides traditional institutional investors with a standardized path to access crypto asset exposure. At its peak, the market capitalization of its BTC and ETH holdings exceeded $140 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of more than three times. RWA acts as a key intermediary in this process: anchoring real-world asset cash flows on one end and connecting the on-chain settlement and valuation systems of stablecoins and DAT on the other. The BCG-Ripple 2025 report predicts that the tokenized asset market will expand from its current value of approximately $600 billion, growing at a CAGR of approximately 53%, to nearly $18.9 trillion by 2033, providing the basis for this scale assumption. 2025 also marks the inflection point for decentralized derivatives, transitioning from proof-of-concept to actual market share competition. Mainstream on-chain derivatives protocols have made substantial progress in technical architecture, product form, and user experience, beginning to offer considerable alternatives to the trading and listing advantages of centralized exchanges (CEXs). High-performance application chain architectures, exemplified by Hyperliquid, have validated that decentralized infrastructure can directly compete with centralized matching platforms in specific scenarios in terms of throughput, latency, and capital efficiency. Intent-centric architecture has become the core paradigm for DeFi user experience upgrades in 2025: users only need to provide the target state, and a Solver or AI agent competitively searches for the optimal execution path off-chain before submitting it to on-chain settlement, significantly reducing the operational threshold for complex transactions.
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