I'm currently holding short positions in Bitcoin, with the price hovering around my entry point. I predicted that Bitcoin would form a rising wedge pattern, followed by a B-wave rebound after the initial drop. The market is moving as I expected, consistently in a rebound phase on smaller timeframes. Therefore, I established short positions in batches between 89,000 and 90,000, intending to add to my positions when the price reaches 90,000. My stop-loss is set between 90,500 and 91,000. If I can accurately predict the high point of the B-wave rebound, the subsequent C-wave drop will likely be an accelerated move, making this trade highly profitable.
Additionally, the largest-ever options settlement will occur at 4 PM, which will definitely increase price volatility, but it won't change the overall trend. Judging from the current rebound strength, the short-term trend will likely reach another high before starting to decline. Everyone must set stop-loss orders to prevent sudden price spikes due to unexpected news. Pay close attention to the high point of the rising wedge; as long as this high point isn't broken, continue to expect the accelerated decline in segment C; if it is broken, immediately exit any short positions with stop-loss orders!
Ethereum is also rebounding as expected in the short-term trend. I wanted to short it before, but I almost missed it. You can continue to keep an eye on the entry point. The plan is to short it in the 3000-3020 range. If it continues to rebound in the short term but doesn't break through the first high, then that rebound high can be considered the secondary high, which is the high point of the B-wave retracement.
This strategy offers high value for money. Even if it breaks through the previous high, the risk is only 40-50 points; however, if the prediction is correct, there's at least a 100-200 point profit potential. If it does break through the previous high, just stop the loss on the short position. For smaller timeframes, wait for a rebound and then decisively short a short position. If the prediction is accurate, there's a high probability of catching a large, accelerated downward move, making it worth the gamble.
The options settlement for the fourth quarter of 2025 has concluded. The scale of this settlement demonstrates the increasing influence of options in the market, meaning the market will be more easily manipulated by financial derivatives and leveraged funds. Future price volatility may decrease, and for retail investors, this bear market may be the only remaining opportunity to buy the dips Bitcoin at the bottom. The future Bitcoin spot market will likely be beyond the reach of retail investors.
BCH surged again today, breaking through the $600 mark. There's basically no upward pressure now, so just keep holding. Also, the Altcoin ENA I recommended to the group members is already profitable with long positions. The short-term target is still $0.24!
After browsing the blockchain, there aren't any decent new projects. The market remains unchanged, moving sideways with no movement. Let me share my thoughts on PERP and prediction-related projects:
- I'm not optimistic about these two directions. They're basically homogenized competition, all about resources, and there's nothing new.
- In the perp track, only $aster is somewhat interesting; it's too difficult to run the others.
- In terms of predicting the market, Kalshi and Polymarket are already behemoths; we can only look at the secondary market to see if there are any opportunities to participate.
Let's talk about the market situation on the exchange: Bitcoin is still trading sideways. I'm using the same old strategy, but the overall trend leans towards a breakout and upward movement. Here's a list of key cryptocurrencies to watch:
- $act's trading volume has suddenly increased recently, so I'm planning to try entering the market at a suitable price.
- The price movement of $inct is somewhat similar to the early beta phase. I placed an order at the price of 37 to see if it can hold steady.
- Up Exchange is listing new coins again. Keep an eye on (cys) and (rave) to see if you can snag a spot.
- I'm not sure if $Thq is available through a contract; it would be safer to buy it at around 4kW.
- I've been keeping an eye on $bat, and it seems like there's capital supporting the market. I've added it to my watchlist.
- $arc is clearly being manipulated; the trading volume has increased. Don't rush to act; observe further.
- The airdrop for the Lighter project is expected to be generous, but its performance in the secondary market is not promising.
Finally, here's a small suggestion: when the market is generally calm, try to trade less, but still keep a close eye on market dynamics and don't miss any key signals.
The market is constantly changing, and specific entry and exit points should be determined based on real-time conditions. Follow the trend after a breakout! No matter how confident you are, please strictly adhere to your stop-loss and take-profit strategies! That's all for today! Follow me so you don't get lost! QQ: 2178747366, QQ: 2499660658 ( Add me with a note, and I'll add you to our learning and discussion group).
