The recent market has been truly stagnant, with frequent fluctuations and extremely volatile price action, resulting in a severe liquidity crunch and a complete lack of direction.
Let's summarize what the KOL think: During this period, resting is better than frequently placing orders. As long as you still have the right mindset, not taking any action is the best action.
Current market situation: High-level fluctuations and "shakeout"
- Current market situation: BTC is currently fluctuating in the 85k-90k range, characterized by "frequent door-drawing" (rapid up and down V-shaped reversals), which is essentially the main force clearing out high-leverage contracts and reaping short-term funds on the right side.
- Supply and demand structure: Sellers are showing signs of weakness (they can no longer sell), but buyers have not yet made large-scale efforts to drive up prices, resulting in thin liquidity and forming a "vacuum zone" where even small amounts of capital can cause sharp fluctuations of 1-2%.
Here are some ideas for short-term and long-term investment strategies that you might find helpful:
If you really want to do short-term trading:
Analyst's core strategy and key operational points: Murphy (short-term technical analyst) - minor pullbacks/rebounds.
1. Switch the candlestick chart to the 10-minute timeframe to capture "door-shaped" opportunities.
2. Refer to the price trajectory line (purple line) from the previous day; go short above the purple line and go long below it.
3. Enter the market based on indicators (overbought/oversold + divergence signals).
If you want to capture trends more steadily:
Eugene (Trend Trader) Long in batches at low levels
1. It is believed that long below 90k is risk-controlled, and the defensive position is clear (84k is an invalid point).
2. The volatility is expected to subside by the end of the year or January. I would rather position myself now than wait until it reaches 95k or higher before chasing the market.
3. We are optimistic about the potential for BTC to decouple from the performance of US stocks.
This analysis provides a very clear logic for the current BTC market trend, and its core focus can be summarized in the following four dimensions:
1. Market Characterization: High-level "consolidation" rather than a "market reversal"
- Phenomenon: Frequent occurrences of "drawing a door" and "rapid V-turns".
- In essence: This is the main force clearing out highly leveraged contracts and reaping the funds of retail investors who engage in "right-side trading" by chasing highs and selling lows.
- Reason: The 85K–90K range has entered a "liquidity vacuum zone," with very thin buy and sell orders. Therefore, a small amount of capital can cause a 1–2% fluctuation, but this is not the true trend direction.
2. Market sentiment: Selling pressure has dried up, and market sentiment is calm.
- Supply side: The previous selling pressure has weakened, and sales are not picking up.
- Sentiment: As the market fluctuated and consolidated, the funding rate fell back to Flat (close to 0), indicating that high-leverage long positions have been cleared out, and market sentiment has shifted from excitement to calm or even pessimism.
3. Key level: 84K is the lifeline for the bulls.
- Defense point: 84K is currently the most important support level (the low of 12/1).
- Judgment: As long as the price does not effectively break below 84K, the overall structure remains bullish. Several failed attempts to break below this level demonstrate strong buying support within this range.
4. Future Outlook: Decoupling and the Opportunity for Relaunch
- Signs of decoupling: BTC is beginning to show a tendency to decouple from the trend of US stocks, with major players "testing the waters" (actively pushing up prices) outside the time when US stocks are open.
- Timing: With US capital markets quiet for the Christmas holidays, the current consolidation appears to be a period of consolidation, and the market may be nearing its breakout point.
The current erratic price movements are merely a "liquidity cleansing," so there's no need to panic. As long as the 84K level holds, pullbacks are just a way to shake out leverage, and the overall structure remains bullish. We should patiently wait for the consolidation to end and for the market to choose a direction.
Even the short-term trading master Ao Ying has conceded defeat in this market, so I suggest everyone just enjoy the holiday! We'll continue to track down high-probability strategies and recommend them to you when the masters return!
