can someone smarter than me explain why we won't get ZIRP again

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Good question, have thought through this past month. ZIRP wasn’t a normal state it was a very specific post-GFC regime.
It worked when inflation was structurally low, globalization was deflationary, labor had no leverage and central banks could cut without losing credibility. That setup is gone. Post-COVID inflation proved sticky and politically toxic, supply shocks are structural and deficits mean markets now demand a real return.
It isn’t impossible but it’s no longer the default. You only get it again with a real crisis and clearly broken inflation. Otherwise, the floor is higher than the 2010s.