Compiled by: GaryMa (Wu Blockchain Blockchain)
summary
Wu Blockchain analysis of macroeconomic indicators this week: Last week, the US Q3 GDP far exceeded expectations, core PCE met expectations, and the Bank of Japan's October meeting minutes indicated the possibility of an interest rate hike; this week, the focus will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes and the potential announcement of the Federal Reserve Chairman.
Last week's review
Key events & indicators this week
December 29
December 31
January 1
summary
Wu Blockchain analysis of macroeconomic indicators this week: Last week, the US Q3 GDP far exceeded expectations, core PCE met expectations, and the Bank of Japan's October meeting minutes indicated the possibility of an interest rate hike; this week, the focus will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes and the potential announcement of the Federal Reserve Chairman.
Last week's review
- The Bank of Japan's October meeting minutes stated that it will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price forecasts are met as expected.
- Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack stated that with inflation still above target and data distorted, there is no need to adjust interest rates in the coming months. She noted that the cooling of the November CPI may have been underestimated due to data issues caused by the government shutdown, and that actual inflation may be closer to 2.9%–3.0%. She favors maintaining the policy rate in the 3.5%–3.75% range until at least next spring, until a clearer assessment of the impact of tariffs on prices and the economy is available, and believes that current interest rates may already be close to or even slightly below neutral levels.
- The initial estimate for the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%. The initial estimate for the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.9%, in line with market expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.6%. In addition, the initial estimate for the quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure was 3.5%, significantly higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.5%.
- The Bank of Canada's December Board of Governors meeting minutes revealed that members believed the global economy, despite pressure from US protectionism, had shown some resilience, but inflation still faced upside risks. The Canadian economy, after recent data revisions, remained in a state of oversupply, and trade policy uncertainty was considered a major risk factor, particularly the upcoming review of the USMCA (Canada-Mexico-Canada Agreement), which could impact business investment and the economic outlook. Against this backdrop, following a cumulative 100 basis point rate cut this year, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25%, deeming the current rate level broadly appropriate.
- The number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 was 214,000, compared with expectations of 224,000 and the previous week's figure of 224,000.
Key events & indicators this week
December 29
- The Bank of Japan released a summary of comments from policymakers at its December monetary policy meeting (07:50).
December 31
- The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting (03:00).
- China's official manufacturing PMI for December (09:30)
- US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 (in thousands) (21:30)
January 1
- US President Trump may nominate a new Federal Reserve chairman in the first week of January (pending).
- Warren Buffett has officially stepped down, and Abel will take over as Berkshire Hathaway CEO (to be determined).
