On December 29th, 10x Research published an article stating that the crypto market entered the new year with sluggish activity, but derivatives positioning was quietly sending a completely different signal. Volatility is narrowing, capital flows are gradually increasing, and leverage ratios remain high, even as trading volume and participation continue to decline. ETF capital flows, stablecoin trading activity, and futures positions are no longer coordinated, resulting in a seemingly calm market that is actually rife with undercurrents.
Bitcoin's downtrend persists, but a reversal to an uptrend is possible in January. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43%, indicating a bullish signal; while the Stochastic Oscillator is at 30%, indicating a bearish signal. An RSI above 70% and a Stochastic Oscillator above 90% may foreshadow a bearish trend, while an RSI below 30% and a Stochastic Oscillator below 10% may indicate an uptrend reversal. Bitcoin is 4.5% away from triggering a trend reversal, and the current trend is bearish. The key short-term bullish/bearish price level is $88,421, and the major bullish/bearish price level is $98,759.
Ethereum may also see a reversal of its upward trend in January. Ethereum's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44%, a bullish signal; while the Stochastics Index is at 23%, a bearish signal. An RSI above 70% and a Stochastics Index above 90% may indicate a bearish trend, while an RSI below 30% and a Stochastics Index below 10% may indicate a reversal of the upward trend. Ethereum is only 5% away from triggering a trend reversal, and the current trend is bearish. The key short-term bullish/bearish price level is $2,991, and the major bullish/bearish price level is $3,363.
