Monero (XMR) could present a buying opportunity for "late-bought Bull " if the Q4 2025 price pattern repeats, with the $400–$420 support zone and the 50-day moving Medium being key areas to watch.
After a "Santa rally"-style surge, XMR bounced back, but thin liquidation and low volume could cause a rapid price reversal as the new year begins. However, a correction to support could become an attractive entry point for short-term investors.
- XMR saw a slight increase during Christmas week, but thin liquidation conditions could lead to a correction.
- The $400–$420 range and the 50-day moving average are key support clusters, potentially creating a buy opportunity if the Q4 2025 pattern repeats.
- The futures market isn't overly euphoric yet, but overall sentiment remains weak and needs improvement for a sustainable recovery.
XMR could correct to the $400–420 support zone.
There is a possibility that XMR will retest the $400–$420 range, as this was a key resistance area in the past and is now converging with the 50-day moving average, which typically acts as a "buffer" in Q4 2025.
During Christmas week, a "Santa rally"-style surge propelled XMR up by approximately 7%, from $432 to over $460. This rebound occurred amidst a slight decrease in Bitcoin dominance, paving the way for altcoin recovery.
The risk lies in the fact that the upward surge is accompanied by thin liquidation and low volume . If these conditions persist into the new year, the rebound could be quickly reversed, increasing the probability of the price returning to the nearest support zone.
The $400–$420 range, which was the May price peak and also a resistance zone in the second half of 2025, was only broken through in mid-December. Therefore, if XMR holds this area as support, the price structure could be favorable for the “next uptrend”.
Notably, the $400–$420 range coincides with the 50-day moving Medium (MA 50). Throughout Q4, the price repeatedly bounced up after touching the MA 50, so if the pattern repeats, a return to this area could open up new buying opportunities for latecomers.
The MACD signal may pull the XMR back to the 50-day moving average before a recovery.
If the MACD forms a “Death Cross,” XMR could be pulled down to test the 50-day moving average, similar to previous corrections, and this could be a short-term Bull zone awaiting confirmation before entering.
At the time mentioned in the original text, the MACD was approaching a Death Cross, a technical signal that often suggests short-term downward pressure. When this signal appears, the price may slide down to the 50-day moving average convergence zone.
Previous behavioral data shows that the Death Cross signals in October, November, and December all "cooled down" at the moving Medium , meaning selling pressure weakened around the MA. This pattern reinforces the scenario: instead of chasing rallies, late-entering Bull may patiently wait for a retest.
If the support zone holds, the near-term target is $470, representing a potential gain of approximately 15% if bought around the support zone. Conversely, if the price falls and remains below the 50-day moving average, the "buy at support" argument will be invalidated.
The XMR futures market isn't overheating yet.
Futures signals indicate that there hasn't been a wave of retail investors using excessive leverage, meaning the market hasn't yet entered a state of extreme Capital that typically leads to sharp corrections.
Given the broader market sentiment potentially weakening in early 2026, XMR remains at risk of being pulled down. However, at the time described, the risk of "overheating" from the Futures market is not yet prominent.
One positive point is that there are no signs of a massive influx of highly leveraged retail capital. A lack of "euphoria" is generally XEM a healthier state, as periods of excessive retail participation with leverage in the past have often been followed by pullbacks.
Market sentiment remains a major variable in the XMR recovery.
Although futures aren't overheating, overall sentiment remains negative during Christmas week; if sentiment resets to positive, the probability of a sustained recovery for XMR could improve.
The original text emphasizes that XMR 's sentiment hasn't yet entered a sufficiently positive zone to trigger a new upward movement. During Christmas week, sentiment was even predominantly negative.
For cyclical Cryptoasset , an improvement in sentiment often Vai as a "catalyst" for price breakouts after retesting support. Therefore, in addition to the $400–$420 price range and the 50-day moving average, investors also need to monitor shifts in sentiment to assess the sustainability of the rebound.
Frequently Asked Questions
How important is the $400–420 range for XMR?
This area was the peak price in May and a key resistance level in the second half of 2025, which was only recently surpassed in mid-December. If XMR can hold this area as support, the likelihood of extending the upward trend will be higher.
What does the 50-day moving average (MA) mean in the XMR scenario?
In Q4 2025, XMR repeatedly surged upon touching the 50-day moving average (MA 50). The $400–$420 range also coincides with the MA 50, so if the price corrects to this area, it could become a potential entry point for short-term Bull if a confirmation signal appears.
Will a MACD Death Cross cause XMR to drop significantly?
The Death Cross could pull prices down to the 50-day moving average. In its appearances in October, November, and December, the downward pressure eased around the moving Medium , so this could be a corrective "reset" before the market decides on its next trend.
What is the XMR Futures market showing?
There are no signs of retail investors using excessive leverage, meaning the market is not yet in an overly euphoric state. This usually helps reduce the risk of a sharp correction due to overheating, although prices may still fluctuate according to general sentiment.
