How much impact does a 1-dollar fluctuation in silver price have? Last Friday's silver price movement clearly marked the first time short sellers conceded defeat, leading to an overbought condition. Today, silver prices have experienced significant volatility; how much capital will be affected by such fluctuations? Let's estimate the approximate risk exposure of silver: (1) Futures Market: New York commodity futures have approximately 160,000 contracts, corresponding to 800 million ounces of silver. Shanghai has 720,000 contracts, corresponding to 350 million ounces of silver. 800 million + 350 million = approximately 1.2 billion ounces. (2) OTC: This is very difficult to estimate. Gemini's estimate of OTC exposure at 3 billion ounces is reasonable, as John Hull's book also states that the global forwards market is more than twice the size of the futures market. Combining futures and OTC trading: Total silver risk exposure ≈ 4-5 billion. A fluctuation of 10 yuan would amount to 40-50 billion. What kind of trading opportunity is this? Has anyone already positioned themselves in this market?

Recent rest