Cryptocurrency expert Michaël van de Poppe warns that the majority of altcoins are unlikely to survive until 2026, citing weak performance, increased competition, and an unsuitable Token model.
This forecast comes amid growing skepticism about the direction of the crypto market in 2026. While many experts predict a prolonged downtrend, some believe the market could soon recover and enter a new growth cycle.
Altcoin Filtering in 2026: Why Many Token May Fail, While Only a Few Survive
In a recent YouTube video, Van de Poppe argued that the notion of "altcoins always recovering" is very dangerous. According to him, the past year was a "wake-up call," with most altcoins performing worse than in 2022.
"It's been a really tough downtrend year with most altcoins dropping around 90%. And I think most of them will never recover," he Chia .
The expert also pointed out several reasons why many altcoins will struggle next year, most notably the Token model and poor financial management. Van de Poppe stated:
"The primary reason many altcoins fail is that the founding team messed up the finances, created a flawed Token model, or experienced such a sharp decline that it couldn't recover."
The prolonged market downturn is another key factor. Van de Poppe argues that this is the "longest downtrend" the crypto market has ever experienced. He compares this period to the bursting of the DOT-com bubble more than 20 years ago.
"Looking back at the aftermath of the dot-com bubble, almost all the internet-related projects or companies at that time never recovered," he added.
Rapid technological advancements are also reshaping the competition between projects. Van de Poppe cites the example of projects that originated in previous cycles, now surpassed by newer, more efficient solutions launched later.
Furthermore, some of the problems that older projects aimed to solve no longer exist, causing the projects to lose value and making long-term survival difficult. While the entry of large organizations into the market is generally a positive sign, it can actually put smaller projects at an even greater disadvantage.
"Taking Peg as an example from 2017, there are now much better solutions to the problem Peg was addressing… When large organizations enter the market, the impact is positive for the industry as a whole, but it poses a challenge for smaller, less competitive groups," he emphasized.
Despite warning that most altcoins won't survive until 2026, Van de Poppe believes there are still projects that have the potential to stay afloat. In his view, the altcoins that might survive are those whose Token prices barely reflect their true internal development.
He argued that projects with growing on-chain activity , increasing TVL, volume, and fee revenue, even if Token prices are weak or declining, are the long-term survival candidates. He highlighted examples such as Arbitrum, AAVE , and NEAR.
“The current price of Arbitrum is hitting a new Dip compared to the previous period, while the ecosystem has grown by almost 200% over the same time. This is where you can find really good altcoins,” Van de Poppe Chia .
This view also aligns with the general market forecast that a widespread “altcoin boom” is unlikely, and that only a select few assets will truly benefit as the market matures.
Therefore, the distinction between failing altcoins and surviving altcoins will become increasingly clear in the next cycle. While this may cause temporary losses for retail investors, in the long run it could help the crypto ecosystem become stronger and more sustainable with truly high-quality and stable projects.
