Analysts are closely monitoring Tesla (TSLA) stock after the EV giant gave a preview of its Q4 deliveries report, an unusual move for the company. On its investor relations site, Tesla posted its own Wall Street consensus estimates for Q4 and full-year deliveries. For Q4, Tesla said “company compiled delivery consensus” came in at 422,850 units globally, which would represent a 15% drop from a year ago.
Additionally, that number is below the 445,000 delivery estimate as compiled via Bloomberg, which would only be a 10% drop. Tesla reported the median estimate was 420,399. While TSLA shares were little changed on Tuesday after the report, shares are down 5.5% in the last five days.
Tesla (TSLA) stock is trading near record levels in the final days of 2025, leading Wall Street to issue bullish forecasts for 2026. TSLA has rallied 28% since its November lows, driven by positive developments from Elon Musk’s company. While many analysts have given bullish forecasts for TSLA, though, the latest deliveries preview signals a potentially poor earnings report, one that could send shares down.
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Indeed, some analysts believe that Tesla’s release of these compiled estimates means the company is trying to get ahead of a poor delivery report and cushion the blow. For the year, Tesla’s consensus estimates came in at 1,640,752 deliveries, an 8% drop compared to 2024 and the automaker’s second consecutive year of sales declines.
Furthermore, some analysts have already issued bearish forecasts for Tesla (TSLA) in 2026, validating concerns about the bearish Q4 deliveries report. Earlier this month, Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla to Equal-weight from Overweight, reversing the firm’s previously bullish position on the stock. Meanwhile, Wedbush has the highest price target of $600, while Piper Sandler and Cantor Fitzgerald project around $500.
