The 2026 interest rate cut path has become a key variable for the crypto market, with increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve.

According to ME News, as of December 31st (UTC+8), the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times by 2025, bringing them down to 3.5%–3.75%, but this is still at an 18-year high. The latest dot plot shows a significant divergence of opinion among officials regarding the 2026 interest rate path: opinions on "zero, one, or two rate cuts" are almost evenly divided, increasing market uncertainty. CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in January was only 20%, rising to 45% in March. Most forecasts point to only one rate cut in 2026. Analysts believe that if employment weakens and inflation remains under control, there may be one or two rate cuts this year, which would benefit risk assets; conversely, if inflation rebounds, rate cuts and liquidity support may be suspended, putting pressure on the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Furthermore, Powell's resignation in May and the potential for a dovish new chairman are also considered important variables affecting the cryptocurrency market in 2026. (Source: ME)