BTC: Summary of Advanced Bitcoin Community Discussions by Tiafilo (18:00:09 ~ 19:00:09)

1. The current recommended strategy is primarily short, waiting for a dead cat bounce to short. BTC has been consolidating for 40 days without a key breakout. While the 4-hour chart shows strength above the Proof of Conformity (PoC), the bias is short, waiting for a rebound test. If the price rises to around 108300 in the short term (a significant resistance level, including the 61.8% retracement, the previous consolidation zone PoC, and the untested SVP), this is considered the last line of defense for the bearish outlook and an ideal point to add to short positions. The monthly, 2-month, and yearly charts are all bearish, indicating a clear overall bearish trend. Chasing long opportunities during the rebound in early 2026. 2. Position and Risk Management Recommendations: We suggest initiating short positions with a small initial position, paying close attention to opportunities to add to short positions around 108300. This level represents the last line of defense in the bear market; a break above this level would invalidate the bearish logic. Operationally, it is recommended to enter with a trial order, gradually adding to the short position to avoid a large position at once. Set the stop-loss order above 108300; if the price stabilizes above this level, a quick stop-loss is necessary. Pay close attention to the year-end monthly closing price and the potential rebound window at the beginning of 2026; control position size to avoid the risk of false breakouts. 3. Suitable Trading Style: This strategy is suitable for conservative medium- to trend traders. Based on a bearish outlook across larger timeframes and resistance at key technical levels, it emphasizes a strategy of waiting for rebounds to short. This strategy is not suitable for aggressive chasing of rallies; it stresses that "rebounds are escape windows," and recommends quick entry and exit to avoid overstaying positions. Catalysts include the year-end monthly close and rebound opportunities following improved liquidity. Strict risk management is essential; blindly chasing long positions should be avoided.