Lighter's valuation surpasses Pump.fun and Jupiter: Can LIT outpace Hyperliquid?

Lighter (LIT) is a decentralized perpetual Futures Contract built on Ethereum Layer 2. After distributing 25% of the total supply through an Airdrop, investors expect LIT's market Capital to continue growing.

Why are investors still optimistic about Lighter's potential, and what risks should they be aware of now? This article will analyze these issues in more detail.

Lighter's value surpasses Pump.fun and Jupiter.

Previously, Lighter successfully Capital $68 million at a valuation of $1.5 billion. Immediately after its launch, Coinbase listed LIT with the trading pair LIGHTER-USD. The price of LIT fluctuated around $2.7–$2.9, with a fully diluted market Capital (FDV) of approximately $2.7 billion .

Following the Airdrop, the market witnessed the participation of a major whale. According to the Lookonchain analytics account, at least three whale wallets deposited 9.98 million USDC into Lighter to purchase LIT.

A report from BeInCrypto indicates that large investors are buying LIT on the market. This action helps maintain buying pressure and supports the Token price. This suggests that some investors believe LIT still has significant growth potential, especially as it is in its initial price-testing phase.

According to CoinGecko data, Lighter, despite being newly launched, has already surpassed Pump.fun and Jupiter in market Capital . Currently, Lighter ranks fourth among decentralized exchange (DEX) Token , behind only Hyperliquid, Aster, and Uniswap.

Many investors expect Lighter's FDV to not stop at $2.7 billion but to potentially increase even further.

Investors expect Lighter (LIT)'s value to equal that of Aster or even Hyperliquid.

There are several reasons why investors have such confidence.

Firstly, in terms of attention, Lighter is currently very prominent. According to Dexu AI, Lighter (LIT) is currently the project with the highest level of information coverage among perpetual Derivative protocols.

Following Jupiter and Hyperliquid, Lighter is experiencing an impressive increase in its "smart Watcher ." Additionally, the Lighter fan community (maxis) is very strong, ranking third only after Hyperliquid and Aster.

Secondly, despite being newly launched, Lighter has achieved a 24-hour volume comparable to Aster and very close to Hyperliquid. Lighter's 7-day and 30-day volumes are even higher than both of these competitors.

“The race is very close. Hyperliquid. Lighter. Aster. Only one will win…” investor Alex Chia .

Therefore, many investors believe that Lighter has a good chance of achieving a diluted market Capital (FDV) similar to Aster's, around $5.5 billion . If this scenario occurs, the price of LIT could double from its current level of $2.7.

Some investors even expect LIT to surpass HYPE. Hyperliquid currently has a foreign direct investment (FDV) of approximately $25 billion. This means LIT could increase nearly tenfold if it achieves similar performance.

However, these comparisons are primarily based on expectations, media hype, and the "hype" surrounding them. Some experts have also voiced their opposition to this view.

What about the risks?

A user named Henrik Chia that Lighter has lost approximately 25% of its total open interest in the last three weeks. Additionally, when comparing the P/E ratios between the two projects, it's clear that LIT is currently overvalued compared to HYPE, despite being weaker fundamentally.

“Looking at the current situation, LIT is priced higher than HYPE based on both circulating supply and total dilution value, despite its weaker foundation. Furthermore, 100% of Hyperliquid's revenue is used to buy back Token, while LIT's revenue and Token distribution remains unclear. Essentially, LIT currently lacks significant momentum, and the practice of retail investors taking advantage of Airdrop and then selling them will likely continue in the near future,” Henrik stated .

Furthermore, the sharp drop in revenue following the Token Generation Event (TGE) has also caused considerable concern. Analyst TylerD noted that Lighter's revenue plummeted from $1.5 million per day on November 21, 2023, to $150,000 per day in December 2023. This represents a tenfold decrease.

Historical data also shows that encouraging Airdrop often leads to a surge in volume , thereby temporarily boosting revenue. However, for long-term sustainable growth, Lighter needs to demonstrate a clear competitive advantage over its rivals. The project also needs to maintain resilience when the overall market fluctuates.