According to an article published on the X platform by Shaw, Odaily Odaily, there is a huge gap between the actual progress of quantum computing and media hype and public perception. Despite progress in the field, quantum computers will not achieve their claimed capabilities within the next 40 to 50 years. Even with the most ideal Grover algorithm, the search space for hash functions like SHA-256 can only be reduced from 2 to the power of 256 to 2 to the power of 128, and 2 to the power of 128 remains physically unbreakable.
Shaw points out that even the most advanced quantum computers today cannot even factor the number 21 into 3 and 7 without knowing the outcome. To crack Bitcoin, a quantum computer would have to perform repeated calculations on the real-time network within minutes, a leap far exceeding the advancement from computers in the 1950s to modern server clusters. Modern cryptography was designed from the outset to anticipate future increases in computing power. Currently, the fears or hype surrounding quantum computing lack factual basis.
