Midnight (NIGHT) narrowly avoided a 45% drop — but the risks aren't over yet.

Midnight (NIGHT) is currently trading around $0.088, down about 7% on the day. However, the price is still up about 18% this week, but the short-term outlook has changed.

A bearish pattern has appeared on the chart, and buyers are struggling to defend the support zone – which only held firm thanks to a strong last-minute reaction. Midnight's price nearly broke through support. The risk here is that the price was only "saved," not truly reversed.

Now the question is simple: Was this just a scare tactic, or simply fate being delayed?

The head and Vai pattern faces a weak support zone.

A Vai Vai has appeared on the 12-hour chart with an upward sloping neckline. If this pattern is confirmed, technical analysis suggests the price could fall by approximately 45% from its current level. NIGHT slipped below the neckline around $0.088 before buyers managed to pull the price back up. This recovery was more of a "rescue" than a true reversal signal.

Note: The neckline of the pattern is sloping upwards, indicating that buyers are still trying to push the price to create progressively higher Dip even though a distribution pattern has formed. Such patterns usually break out slowly, but when a decline is confirmed, it is very strong because many small investors who bought in late will be trapped.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which measures large money flows based on volume, does not support the recent recovery. The CMF has broken the uptrend line and is heading strongly towards the zero mark.

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The decline in CMF created a clear bearish divergence: from December 24th to December 31st, 2023, the price went up but CMF went down. This suggests that large wallets may be withdrawing Capital as the price rises, warning that the price support is not truly sustainable.

If the CMF breaks below zero, the neckline will be threatened again. Buying power from retail investors and small-scale spot purchases may not be enough to absorb the selling pressure.

Spot cash flow salvaged the situation, but did not change the price trend at midnight.

The shift in spot cash flow is the reason Midnight's price didn't collapse immediately after breaking support. On December 30, 2023, approximately $1.37 million worth of Midnight coins flowed onto exchanges, likely triggering a general decline along with the CMF drop. However, by the beginning of December 31, 2023, the situation had reversed.

In just the next 12 hours, approximately $2.02 million worth of NIGHT shares were withdrawn from exchanges, indicating that buyers had returned and pushed the price back above the $0.088 mark.

This buying phase helped protect the price. Buyers appeared and used this price zone to enter orders, which is why the predicted 45% drop has not materialized so far.

This also means this level remains very important. If buying pressure continues, $0.088 could become a support zone for a recovery, with the price having a chance to return to the $0.090 and $0.102 levels.

If the price surpasses $0.102, the right Vai pattern will be broken, increasing the likelihood of a retest of higher levels. A breakout above $0.120 (a new NIGHT record) could invalidate the downtrend.

However, the current defensive phase is not convincing enough. The weak CMF suggests that the support zone is primarily based on short-term buying pressure, lacking long-term confidence. If the $0.088 level is breached again, the price could fall very quickly overnight. This could also trap retail investors who are buying at the Dip when the price falls overnight.

The next target will be near the $0.072 area, where there is Fibonacci support at 0.618. If this area is broken, the price could fall to $0.053. If the price continues to fall further, $0.047 will be a strong support zone, coinciding with the predicted 45% price drop according to technical analysis.

Currently, the entire price trend depends on a single zone. If the buyers hold the price above $0.088, a recovery opportunity will open up. If they fail to hold, a decline is predicted to return immediately.