The number of unemployment benefit claims in the US has fallen sharply, making a Fed interest rate cut less urgent.

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell sharply in the final week of December, suggesting the labor market remains stable and complicating predictions of early interest rate cuts in 2026.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27, 2026, fell to 199,000 – the lowest level since late November and well below the forecast of 220,000. The previous week's figure was also revised upward to 215,000, making the recent decline even more significant.

Positive labor data has pushed back expectations of Fed easing policy.

Overall, these figures suggest that layoffs in the US are still well under control. Businesses are retaining employees, although hiring has slowed and Capital costs remain high.

This reinforces the view that the US economy is cooling down gradually rather than falling into recession.

As a result, this report makes the possibility of rapid monetary easing less convincing. With the labor market remaining stable, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is also under less pressure to act hastily, especially since inflation has not yet reached its target .

This trend is similar to the minutes of the December FOMC meeting . Policymakers acknowledged that labor conditions had cooled somewhat but also stressed that the number of jobs lost had not increased significantly.

Some Fed members argue that "keeping the target interest rate range unchanged for a while would be reasonable" to allow more time to assess newly released data.

In addition, inflation remains a significant concern . Low jobless claims suggest wages remain stable, which could make the Fed's 2% inflation target, particularly in the services sector, more difficult to achieve in the short term.

The minutes also noted that inflation "has not come any closer to the 2% target over the past year," further reinforcing caution.

Overall, current data is reducing the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in early 2026. Capital markets have already ruled out volatility in January 2026, and the recently released positive labor data makes a March 2026 rate cut less certain, unless inflation shows clearer signs of slowing.

The Fed appears to prefer waiting for further signals rather than risking easing policy too soon.

For the crypto market, this is not a very favorable context. Bitcoin has struggled to regain upward momentum in recent weeks as persistently high interest rates have driven up real yields and liquidation has been strained.

Strong labor data is one of the reasons why retail investors' desire for rapid policy easing has decreased.

In the near future, the short-term direction of crypto will likely continue to depend on macroeconomic data. If labor conditions do not weaken or inflation does not decrease significantly, it is highly likely that the Fed will continue to maintain its policy through most of the first quarter of 2026.

This policy will continue to put pressure on risky assets, including crypto, as we head into early 2026.