According to the latest analysis of on-chain data, Bitcoin officially entered a bear market phase from the end of 2025. Many key indicators suggest a clear medium-term downtrend is forming, with the market likely to only truly Dip in 2026.
When did Bitcoin enter a bear market?
on-chain data suggests Bitcoin began signaling a bear market around November 2025 , when the price fell below the 365-day moving Medium . Historically, this is a crucial technical milestone, often marking a shift from an uptrend to a prolonged downtrend.
In addition, market strength indicators such as the Bull Score have been steadily weakening, reflecting a decline in investor expectations for price increases.
What are the on-chain signals telling us?
CryptoQuant emphasizes that the current market is exhibiting many negative factors:
Firstly, Bitcoin's price is trading below the Medium cost for long-term investors, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant.
Secondly, cash flow from large institutions and investment funds shows signs of slowing down, or even reversing to net selling in the latter part of 2025.
Third, cyclical indicators suggest the market is repeating a familiar pattern: after reaching a strong peak, Bitcoin typically undergoes a deep and prolonged correction before forming a new Dip .
The potential Dip of Bitcoin in 2026
According to on-chain data-driven valuation models, Bitcoin could continue to correct to the $56,000–$60,000 range in 2026 if the current downtrend is not broken.
This price represents a drop of over 50% from the previous cycle's peak, but is still XEM relatively "shallow" compared to past bear markets. This reflects Bitcoin's maturity, as long-term demand persists even during periods of weakness.
The main reason for the downward trend.
One of the key factors is the decline in buying momentum from institutional investors. During periods of strong growth, institutional money flows play a crucial Vai in pushing prices to new highs. When these Capital slow down, the market becomes more vulnerable to selling pressure.
Furthermore, the macroeconomic environment is no longer as favorable for risky assets. Cautious monetary policy and defensive investor sentiment make it difficult for Bitcoin to maintain the strong upward momentum it experienced in the previous period.
A bear market does not mean the end of the cycle.
Although current signals lean toward a negative scenario, a bear market does not necessarily mean a long-term collapse of Bitcoin. In the past, each deep correction cycle has Vai to cleanse the market, removing excess leverage and building a foundation for the next growth cycle.
Instead of expecting rapid recoveries, this period is more likely to be a prolonged consolidation phase, with large price swings and a prevailing cautious sentiment.
on-chain data suggests Bitcoin entered a bear market by late 2025, with the cycle Dip likely to occur in 2026. The $56,000–$60,000 price range is XEM a crucial support area if the downtrend continues.
In this context, monitoring on-chain data, risk management, and adjusting expectations are more important than ever. The bear market may last, but it is also the period that lays the groundwork for the next Bitcoin growth cycle.
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The article Bitcoin Enters Bear Market in 2026 as CryptoQuant Warns It Was Started appeared on CoinMoi .
